The offseason “dead zone” is sometimes the best time to look at long-term future bets. Without free agency and the draft there’s a lot of opportunity for movement on the odds boards.
If you have an idea on how a team is looking to improve and are right, you can create value in your bets before the teams even have a chance to even improve their rosters. The biggest drawback is there just isn’t much variety in the bets you can make right now.
Here are three odds involving the Jaguars I found that I think all hold value right now.
Jaguars to win Super Bowl: +3000
If at any point you plan on betting the Jaguars to win the Super Bowl next season you better do it soon. 30-1 is too low for a team with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. We saw what can happen when he gets hot in 2022. He was so good he made everyone believe the team was a lot better than they actually were.
Without superhero Trevor the roster was exposed this season. After hearing both Doug Pederson and Trent Baalke speak at the combine, it feels like they really took a tough look in the mirror and are ready to right this ship. Expect this number to fall to closer to 20-1 by time the regular season rolls around. Their current 30-1 number is tied for 14th on the odds boards with the Chicago Bears. Wow.
Super Bowl champion from AFC South: +900
The AFC South has the longest odds for this bet and this is the value to chase here. I get the division doesn’t hold a current powerhouse near the top of the board but it has three young quarterbacks who look like they can carry their team. C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence already both have playoff wins under their belt while Anthony Richardson showed promise in his time before getting injured.
The Colts are third in the AFC South and 19th overall in Super Bowl odds at +4500 leaving only the NFC North with three teams ranked higher than the Colts. Once again, they don’t have the low odds team available but a hot quarterback is going to be required to take out Mahomes. There’s no way the AFC South should hold the longest odds. This is a bet I really like.
Trevor Lawrence 2024 MVP: +2500
Trevor Lawrence’s MVP odds are similar to the team's Super Bowl odds and that makes all the sense in the world. The odds are slightly improved thanks to Jared Goff. The Jaguars are 14th in Super Bowl odds and Trevor is 13th in MVP odds. Jared Goff currently sits at +4000 to win MVP and is the only quarterback behind Lawrence whose team is more favored than the Jaguars to win the Superbowl.
Just ahead of Lawrence, you find Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, and Dak Prescott and all three have a stronger correlation between roster strength and team success. I guess what I’m trying to say is that out of this group of guys Trevor would easily carry the most weight on his shoulders during an MVP caliber season. That is kind of what the award is all about so I like Trevor’s odds as a guy who will truly lift everyone around him if his play excels.
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