The Detroit Lions have become one of the best teams in the NFL, but last season they took full advantage a schedule that tilted favorably (one true weather game, playing the AFC South) on the way to going 15-2 and earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.
The Lions' 2025 schedule naturally tilts tougher, most notably with trading the AFC South for the AFC North as a cross-conference division and a slate of road games that will be daunting. Add in the rare territory of losing both coordinators and a bunch of other assistant coaches this offseason, and there are reasons to be pretty pessimistic about the Lions this year.
Even with that in mind, double-digit wins for the Lions in 2025 feels like a baseline prediction. A tough schedule does have some positives, like the fourth-fewest miles traveled in the league and the most net rest days compared to their opponents. And the locker room is filled with coaches and players who love being doubted, then proving people wrong.
One win-loss prediction for the 2025 Detroit Lions is patently ridiculous
As mentioned, with the analysis of each team's regular season schedule comes residual record predictions far and wide. Moe Moton of Bleacher Report has made win-loss record predictions for all 32 teams, and taking that on will naturally bring some "it comes with the territory" misses in hindsight.
Moton noted the competitiveness of the NFC North as a reason the Lions will win fewer games in 2025. Losing Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn is low-hanging fruit at this point, but it takes up space in a rationale for a prediction.
"New offensive coordinator John Morton was a primary pro play-caller once, in 2017, with the New York Jets, when he fielded the 28th-ranked scoring offense that year. Morton will have a more talented squad this year, but it will be hard to match what Johnson has done over the previous three terms. Detroit promoted linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard, who will be a first-time full-time play-caller.
Read more: NFL's Packers-Lions decision leaves Dan Campbell with obvious free agency move
Moton more assertively mentioned the last time a team lost both coordinators in the same offseason.
"Remember, the Philadelphia Eagles went 14-3 in 2022 and dropped to 11-6 the following year with a pair of new coordinators."
But Moton thinks the Lions will do worse than lose three fewer games.
"The Lions will take a bigger fall with their daunting road schedule in a competitive division. They will hover around .500 in 2025."
On that "hover around .500" note, Moton predicted the Lions to finish 9-8 this season and, presumably, miss the playoffs. Pessimism is one thing, and anything could happen with a notably tougher schedule. But predicting an erosion of six wins from last year, with mostly the same players on offense and practically automatic better health for the defense, is a stretch.
Elsewhere in the NFC North, Moton has the Green Bay Packers winning the division title at 12-5, the Chicago Bears going 10-7 and the Minnesota Vikings going 8-9.
More Lions news and analysis
More must-reads: