Patriots defense is overachieving (and might regress soon)

They're also massively overachieving given their personnel. Per Pro Football Reference, the Patriots have the fewest accepted penalties against its defense in the NFL (37). They had the fourth-fewest defensive penalties in 2014 (but gave up 45 first downs via penalty — most in the NFL) and were tied for third in 2018 — two years they won the Super Bowl. They're either on pace to have their best penalty luck under Belichick or will regress soon. 

New England's defensive front is keeping this team afloat. New England has 51 QB hurries per Pro Football Reference, the most in the league by a country mile. (The Cardinals defense is second with 38.) They have a staggering 32 sacks, and Matt Judon leads the NFL with 11.5 of them.

They've been controlling the line of scrimmage and getting after the quarterback without having to send extra bodies, as they're near league average in blitz rate (13th, per Pro Football Reference). 

On film, New England's pass-coverage unit has more holes than a typical Pats defense. Their Mike linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley is physical but slow, there are aging pieces in the secondary and their best defensive back hasn't been on the field enough. But it hasn't mattered much. 

In 2021, 48.9% of the Jets' opponents drives lead to offensive scores — worst in the NFL. This year, they're eighth (32.1%), narrowly behind sixth-ranked New England (31.1%) in this metric. The Jets are statistically one of the biggest overachievers against the spread and have already surpassed their Vegas season win total. New York should win this game barring another implosion by Wilson.