Sunday Six-Pack: Week 10 NFL betting guide

McCaffrey has exceeded this line in each of the three games this season he's caught 4+ balls, averaging 56.3 yards/game. In the past 16 games he's caught 5+ balls, he's averaging 62.2 receiving yards per game.

As long as that workload comes through the air, the yards should follow. Six straight RBs have exceeded their receiving yardage total against Jacksonville, with the starting RB going for 40+ yards through the air in three straight games.

Defensive stalwart: CLE-BAL under 38 points (-110 DraftKings)

In this AFC North showdown, it seems best if we just fade the total. These two met earlier this season and tallied only 31 total points between them, and the meeting prior saw only 16 points.

A big reason why is that these are the two-best defenses in football according to the DVOA rankings. It feels on-brand for this divisional rivalry to be determined by the better defense, so expect a low-scoring, physical game. Take the under.

Willing on Will: Will Levis over 218.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGM)

Will Levis has had a solid start to his NFL career, going for 238 and 262 yards in his first two starts. Things figure to remain open for him down the field when Tennessee heads to Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers have allowed the most 20+ yard passes per game, the second-most passing yards per game and the fifth-most passing yards per attempt. Just last week, C.J. Stroud torched them, tossing for 470 yards.

In fact, QBs have often had the Bucs number this season, with seven of eight passers going over their passing yards prop against the Buccaneers, with each that did so finishing with at least 30+ more yards than their closing line. It's Levis's turn to get in on the fun.

Aided through the air: DET-LAC over 48.5 points (-110 DraftKings)

As you look through some metrics ahead of Week 10, both passing games in this Lions-Chargers contest might find room to operate, which makes us wanting to back the over in what could be a very fun game.

Los Angeles allows the most passing yards per game, which should make things difficult against the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams. On the flip side, there's a nice overlap here of the Chargers running a ton of passing plays and teams tending to attack the Lions through the air.

In this case, the more passing being done feels the better for an over bet. Bring on the points.

Chalky TDs have been delivering: Tony Pollard TD (-150 Caesars)

We get it, this price is not exciting for a player prop that can be as random and frustrating as touchdowns. It matters not to us. Dallas is a 16.5-point favorite and should find plenty of paths to success on the ground against one of the worst run defenses in football with the New York Giants coming to town.

The Giants have allowed the fourth-most rush yards per attempt and the third-most touchdowns to running backs. That's a recipe for a big RB game, and Tony Pollard has been too quiet for Dallas. Despite a steady workload, Pollard hasn't scored since Week 1. That Week 1 opponent? The Giants. Pollard scored twice.

Pete Carroll off a loss: Seahawks -6 (-110 DraftKings)

Since Pete Carroll became the Seahawks coach in 2010, no team is better off a loss than the Seahawks. Seattle and Carroll are 54-27 (66.7%) after a loss, and they've covered the spread at a 62.3% in those games.

That's a trend we want to back here, especially considering how weak the Washington Commanders secondary has been. These Seahawks WRs should have a day at home off an embarrassing loss.