The surprisingly vulnerable NFL quarterbacks going into 2018
The quarterback market in the NFL is never underserved by the press. Fans of just about every team knew by midseason, if not earlier, what their teams' plans for quarterback were beyond the 2017 season. Not the specifics, per se, but whether their team would be sticking with the current quarterback or looking elsewhere, either through the draft or free agency.
Obviously, there could be additional surprises between now and the start of the offseason. Ben Roethlisberger could opt to retire once the Steelers' season is over, as he hinted he would in the early months of 2017. What if Drew Brees captures his second championship weeks after celebrating his 39th birthday in mid-January? Would he decide to ride off into the sunset? Washington’s situation with Kirk Cousins is so volatile, no one quite knows what to make of it.
Then there are a handful of quarterbacks who are presumably safe to continue as starters into 2018 but face either increasing doubts or a make-or-break year next season. For some, it may be surprising given their reputations, but past greatness can only hold you up for so long.
Joe Flacco
Because of his contract and dead cap figure, Flacco and the Ravens are going to be a pair for at least another two years. Since Flacco confirmed his eliteness with a Super Bowl win five years ago, the team is 40-40 and has missed the postseason four of the past five seasons. Flacco’s numbers have been middling the last few years. In 2017, he was 25th in passer rating among quarterbacks with at least 250 attempts.
For a while, Baltimore was accustomed to be perennial contenders. Now that failure is becoming the norm, memories of Flacco’s lone Super Bowl title might start fading from his current narrative.
Dak Prescott
It helps Dak that Jerry Jones is unreserved in his love for his current quarterback. The jury is still out on whether 2017 was a sophomore slump or Prescott being exposed. The second-year quarterback had no touchdowns and multiple interceptions in four of his last seven games in 2017.
He might have had a great 2016, but two underwhelming years out of three would start to define Dak as a flash in the pan — and would likely convince Jones to at least come up with a backup plan at quarterback.
Alex Smith
Rookie Pat Mahomes finally got his chance to get some reps in Week 17, starting in place of the resting Smith. Mahomes played pretty well in victory and could conceivably take over as the starting QB to begin the 2018 season. Smith has a contract out in 2018 that would only cost the Chiefs $3.8 million to cut him. There’s also the potential for a trade to a team that needs a bridge starter.
So much of that depends on whether Smith can finally get Kansas City past the second round of the playoffs this year. Mahomes with only one start might be risky to take over a team still in its contending window, but if it’s clear the Chiefs can’t go any further with Smith, why not?
Ryan Tannehill
Even before he went down with a knee injury prior to the start of the 2017 season, Tannehill’s status as a franchise quarterback was never quite assured. Nevertheless, the Dolphins have paid him like one. There’s a potential contract out in 2018 should Miami choose to take it, at the cost of $4.6 million in dead cap money. That’s fine if Miami gets the QB it wants in the draft. Picking 11th, however, likely requires trading up, even in a QB-rich year such as this.
Andy Dalton
Marvin Lewis returning for two more years is likely a welcome development for Dalton. Like other quarterbacks on the list, Dalton has an out in 2018. His would only cost the Bengals $2.4 million in dead cap. That’s a pittance as well as the salary cap goes. That said, Lewis has shown little eagerness to turn to A.J. McCarron permanently, even as Dalton has regressed the past two seasons.
Jameis Winston
His numbers have steadily improved though his three seasons. Nevertheless, it’s hard for the supreme disappointment of the 2017 Tampa campaign, one with such high expectations, to not rub off on him. Since Dirk Koetter is sticking around for 2018, he’ll take the fall if things go south again next season. Winston’s numbers will have to keep climbing from “pretty good” to “among best in the league” for him not to be blamed alongside the other assortment of scapegoats.
Blake Bortles
Going into 2017, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Bortles would be gone from the Jaguars. He’s taken turns showing promise and the same frustrating ways that had him dismissed as a bust. Bortles can undo a lot of that negative perception by winning a playoff game or two, especially if he happens to play well in those wins.
Speculation has the Jaguars going after Eli Manning on account of the Tom Coughlin connection. Since there’s only one year left on Bortles’s deal, it seems like a decision between a one-year risk on the 37-year-old Manning or the 25-year-old status quo.
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