'TNF' best bets: Colts QB Richardson may be the difference
The crisp, fall air is starting to descend on the East Coast, signaling the beginning of football season is nearly upon us. We still need to get through one more week of preseason NFL games before we can shift our focus to Week 1. If we're going to watch these final tuneups, we might as well bet on them, right?
Let's break down Thursday night's preseason matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Philadelphia Eagles and try to find some valuable bets along the way.
Indianapolis Colts @ Philadelphia Eagles odds and betting breakdown
Tonight's odds: Colts -4.5, over/under 38, Colts -200 moneyline | Eagles +170 moneyline
The Eagles may be the betting favorites to win the NFC for the second straight year, but they're 4.5-point home underdogs to the bottom-dwelling Colts in their preseason finale. Why? Well, let's break it down.
Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni isn't interested in playing his offensive starters in the preseason. Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and others haven't sniffed the field this summer, and that won't change on Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Colts need to give rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson as many live reps as possible before his first NFL start in two and a half weeks. Richardson will likely play most of the first half alongside the offensive starters, whereas Philadelphia will counter with second- and third-stringers on both sides of the ball.
The Eagles will trot out Marcus Mariota and Tanner McKee at the QB position, and that's what gets us to a spread of 4.5 points.
TNF picks
Over 38 (-112 DraftKings)
I like what both offenses bring to the table in this matchup. The Colts should be able to put up points in the first half with their first-team offense going up against Philly's backups, and Mariota needs an impressive performance to lock up his job as the No. 2 QB.
As for the second half, McKee has been the most effective QB for the Eagles all preseason. The rookie from Stanford is 20/38 for 295 yards and one touchdown through two games, and he should have some similar success in the second half against Indy's backups.
The Colts will use a combination of Gardner Minshew and Sam Ehlinger once Richardson takes a seat, and both QBs are more than capable of putting up points down the stretch. This is an enticing group of quarterbacks who will see the field tonight, and I think the final total will be higher than the average preseason game.
Eagles win by 1-13 points (+220 FanDuel)
Richardson is about as volatile as they come in terms of preseason starters. He could look like Josh Allen at times Thursday night, but he could also throw the game away just as easily. Because of the uncertainty surrounding this Colts offense, I think the only way to play the spread is to go value hunting with the Eagles.
Mariota is due for a solid performance after two lackluster games to start the preseason, and McKee has shown the ability to move the ball with backup weapons. Anything can happen in the preseason, so we might as well hunt for a plus-money payout.
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