As the Miami Dolphins and representatives for Tua Tagovailoa continue to talk about a contract extension, the contract experts at Spotrac have given their projection as to what type of contract extension is in store for in the next few weeks. Factoring in the contract extensions that have already been given to Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow, as well as the free-agent quarterbacks on the market this year, and which other quarterbacks are in line for an extension like Jordan Love and Dak Prescott, Spotrac projects Tua to get in the neighborhood of 4 years, $220 million, $105 million fully guaranteed, and $165 million practically guaranteed. Which comes out to an average salary of $55 million per season.
While I think Spotrac’s numbers are close, I think they may be a little low in some areas. For one, Tua and his agent will want a 5th year and a five year extension for more financially security and not a four year deal. Second, while the average annual salary of $55 million per season is fair, I think in the world of fully guaranteed money he will want in the ballpark of $160-$170 million and in the practically guaranteed over $200 million.
That fifth year may be the sticking point for the Dolphins and Tua’s agent as they work through this.
For Miami to only give out a 4-year extension is a dream; it gives them more flexibility to move on from Tua sooner should it not work out. For Tua, who has a long injury history and has had a lot of head injuries, that fifth year and more guaranteed money is life-changing money he knows he has in the bank at the time of signing.
Tua is coming off his best season as a professional, as he started all 17 games for the Dolphins and led the NFL in passing yards. He did though have a career high season in interceptions and fumbles. He did have a career high in touchdown passes with 29, and completion % at 69.3 and since the arrival of quarterbacks coach Darrell Bevell in 2022 his play has dramatically improved the past two seasons.
The Dolphins started the season 9-3, collapsed down the stretch, and failed to win the Division and a playoff game as the offense faltered down the stretch of the season. While Miami has no alternative to move on from Tua, they can let Tua play on his firth year option of his rookie deal at roughly $23 million this season.
The issue is that Miami is up against the salary cap and a long term deal now would lower Tua’s 2024 cap number and give Miami the much-needed salary cap relief they need right now. The risk is if Tua has another successful season and improves, Miami would then have to franchise tag him next season to keep him and pay him the average of the top 5 quarterbacks in the league, which would be another strain on Miami’s salary cap in 2025.
Many believe that Miami and Tua will agree on an extension sometime this offseason. For Miami, they have gone “all in” with Tua to this point; to pivot and move on from him now would put egg on the faces of Chris Grier and Mike McDaniel. Not to mention it would put Miami in a bind from a salary cap perspective as they will not have money to retain or keep many of their own free agents let alone sign players from other teams.
The pickle Miami is in though is if the extension comes in June or July or August or later, the cap relief is nice but the first (and depending on when) and second wave of free agency is over and you will have cap space but “Eli Apple caliber” players only available to sign. If they can agree to a long-term extension with Tua in March, preferably in the next two weeks, it would give Miami much-needed cap relief now to be active players in trying to retain Andrew Van Ginkel, Raekwon Davis, DeShon Elliott, and other players as well as having them be active for free agents that can upgrade this team such as linebacker Patrick Queen and Derrick Henry.
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