Two long reception props for 49ers-Bears
The prop board is finally starting to open up for NFL Week 1. While my ideal state for an article would be to consolidate all of my favorite looks under one roof, that's just not the nature of this business, props are opening up at different times and I want to be able to share them before odds shift drastically.
I've had my eye on both ends of this San Francisco and Chicago contest and glad to see the market finally open for a few pass-catchers of interest.
Darnell Mooney over 21.5 longest reception (-120 DK)
Darnell Mooney is Justin Fields top target. While that isn't saying much if you look at the Bears depth chart, that is not a knock on Mooney, who is a very talented young wideout in a good spot to succeed this season.
Mooney had 14 catches of 20+ yards last season and his 1480 air yards were 15th in the NFL among receivers with 30+ targets. Reports out of the new Bears regime suggest that the Chicago offense will be looking to implement more of a vertical passing element, which should help us here with Mooney to start the year and for the entire season.
San Francisco allowed 64 completions of 20+ yards last season, fifth-most in the league. Get familiar with me writing about defensive average depth of target (DADOT), which aims to quantify how far down the field a secondary was being targeted on every throw. The Niners DADOT at 8.1 was tied for ninth-highest last year, and I'm not seeing much of a shift on the defensive side of the football that will change this scheme vulnerability.
Mooney is the clear WR1 on Chicago and is working towards the second-level for his catches. With a so-so safety tandem for San Francisco, and a potential game script (SF -7) that could cause the need for Fields and the Bears to push the ball in the second half, I like Mooney and Fields to connect on a deep pass.
Brandon Aiyuk over 21.5 longest reception (-110 DK)
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel both look like solid options in this one, but I'm opting for Aiyuk.
The Chicago defense was generous to long plays last season, and ranked inside the top-ten of a few defensive metrics I prefer to look at: explosive play rate (20+ plays/pass attempts), opponent yards per pass attempt and DADOT.
The Bears plan to remedy that with a pair of rookies in their secondary, and there's every reason to expect the Niners to take advantage, even with Trey Lance and any concern you have of him as the new starter.
28.57% of Aiyuk's catches last season went for 20+ yards, the ninth-highest percentage in the league. You may remember that Aiyuk started last year in Kyle Shanahan's dog house. He eventually got out, and went over this 21.5 long catch line in nine of his final 14 games, and four of San Fran's last five games.
He often wasn't skating by either, hauling in a 30+ yard catch in seven of his last 11 games. In the three games Lance was heavily involved as a passer, Aiyuk registered a 21-yard catch or greater in each.
Aiyuk's aDOT topped the team, and his role as the vertical threat should remain in 2022. Aiyuk hauled in a 23 yard catch when he saw Chicago last season.
Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. Griffin can be found on Twitter @griffybets.
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