NFL Week 1: Picks and preview

TV: NBC            LINE: Buffalo -2.5

Fun fact: The Buffalo Bills are Chris Mueller’s unofficial (but actually official, shh) Super Bowl Champion. But for Sean McDermott’s hideous decision not to squib kick against the Chiefs, I think the Bills would have beaten Cincinnati, beaten the Rams, and won it all. So in my personal parallel universe, they’re the team to beat. They get to prove me right in Week 1 by going against the actual champs, the Rams. Los Angeles, as per usual, hasn’t played any of its key pieces in the preseason. Allen Robinson II was the splashy addition to the Rams’ offense, and for the first time in his career, he’ll be playing with a premium quarterback in the person of Matthew Stafford. Los Angeles has the star power to repeat. Will they have the good health necessary for it as well?

Look smart to your friends:

-You know Josh Allen is great, but here’s an interesting stat: He is the only quarterback in league history with at least six rushing touchdowns in each of his first four seasons.

-Wide receiver Cooper Kupp had himself a year in 2021. His 145 receptions and 1,947 yards were both the second-most ever in a single season. He also became just the ninth receiver to take home Super Bowl MVP honors.

The pick: Rams 34 Bills 31

TV: FOX            LINE: New Orleans -5.5

Jameis Winston’s season was off to a promising start through seven games – New Orleans was 5-2 and Winston’s numbers looked good – until an injury derailed his season, and by extension, the Saints’. Winston will get another chance to be the man this year, and he has Michael Thomas back, as well as rookie Chris Olave in the fold. The Saints’ fate rests with Winston; can he stay healthy, and can he play for a full season as he did for seven games last year? Marcus Mariota is the man who will at least start Atlanta’s post-Matt Ryan era, but Desmond Ridder’s development is the real story at the position for the Falcons. Atlanta is rebuilding and figures to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. Sorry, Falcons fans! At least you have Georgia football!

Look smart to your friends:

-Cameron Jordan is one of the most slept-on great players in the league. He has 107 sacks through 11 seasons, the third most among active players, behind only Von Miller and Chandler Jones.

-A.J. Terrell continues to get disrespected in talks of the league’s best corners. He was a second-team All-Pro last year, but his name never gets mentioned in the same breath as Jalen Ramsey, Trevon Diggs, or even some past-their-prime former shutdown guys. He was the only player in the NFL last year to notch at least 80 tackles and 15 passes defensed.

The pick: Saints 26 Falcons 17

TV: FOX            LINE: San Francisco -7

The Jimmy Garoppolo saga sure played out to a strange conclusion, didn’t it? Garoppolo, who seemed a sure bet to be traded, instead reworked his deal with the Niners, and will now stick around as Trey Lance’s backup, a situation that definitely won’t backfire on San Francisco, no sir, no way. How much patience will Kyle Shanahan have for Lance, particularly if he struggles early? There are no such concerns or controversies in Chicago, where Justin Fields is the man at quarterback. The questions for the Bears concern the rest of the roster. Chicago picked up six players on waivers, turning over about 10 percent of their roster in the process, so that doesn’t say much about what general manager Ryan Poles thinks of his roster. You’ve got to feel for Fields, who has plenty of talent, but not much of anything to work with.

Look smart to your friends:

-Only three players in NFL history have seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns, and five rushing touchdowns: Roger Craig, Marshall Faulk, and, you guessed it, Deebo Samuel.

-Who came in second to Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt in sacks last season? It wasn’t Myles Garrett, one of the Bosa brothers, or some other big-name star. It was Chicago’s Robert Quinn, with 18.5. His 101 sacks are the sixth-most since he entered the league in 2011, and his 31 forced fumbles rank second in that time frame.

The pick: 49ers 24 Bears 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Cincinnati -6.5

The Steelers begin the post-Ben Roethlisberger era with quite the test, a road trip to the defending AFC champions. Pittsburgh has plenty of talent on defense, and added linebacker Myles Jack, corner Levi Wallace and just traded for Denver’s Malik Reed, but depth is a major concern. Speaking of major concerns, Pittsburgh might have the worst offensive line in the league. Good luck, Mitch Trubisky! Cincinnati overhauled 80 percent of their line this offseason, adding La’el Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karras and drafting Cordell Volson, who will start at left guard. That should make Joe Burrow’s life much easier, which in turn should make opposing defenses’ lives much harder.

Look smart to your friends:

-Linebacker T.J. Watt tied the single-season sack record last year with 22.5, and is just the second player in league history, along with Reggie White, to post 13+ sacks in four straight seasons.

-Who is the only player besides Watt to have 13+ sacks in each of the last two seasons? If you guessed Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson, come claim your prize. He was fifth in the NFL with 14 last year.

The pick: Bengals 28 Steelers 16

TV: FOX            LINE: Philadelphia -4

There is considerable buzz around the Eagles as not just a trendy NFC East pick but perhaps even an NFC Super Bowl entrant. That puts just a bit of pressure on Jalen Hurts, who had a bumpy first year as the starter in 2021, but showed enough for the Eagles to put their faith in him, and help him by swinging a blockbuster trade with the Titans to net wide receiver A.J. Brown. Now all Hurts has to produce, but at least he has the famously patient Philadelphia fan base on his side. Detroit figures to be a tough team to play against this year, but as long as Jared Goff is their quarterback, there’s a cap on what they’re capable of. There are definitely some building blocks here, and lots of high draft picks, but it still seems like Detroit is at least a year or two – and a quarterback – away.

Look smart to your friends:

-Even though he was learning as he went, Hurts became the third quarterback in history, along with Cam Newton and Kyler Murray, to post 3,000+ passing yards, 700+ rushing yards and 10+ rushing touchdowns in a single season.

-Amon-Ra St. Brown set a Lions rookie record last year, posting 912 receiving yards, which was also fifth-most in the league among rookies. He also became the first rookie in league history with 8+ catches in six consecutive games.

The pick: Eagles 28 Lions 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Miami -3.5

These are strange times for the Patriots, who look, dare I say, vulnerable. Matt Patricia and Joe Judge are running the offense for some reason, and based on most reports are doing a predictably poor job with it. All eyes will be on Mac Jones to see whether he can make a second-year leap, but I’m more curious about whether or not some shine will continue to come off of Bill Belichick. Miami has a new head coach, a new star wide receiver, and one old question: Is this the year Tua Tagovailoa puts it all together? Everyone is saying all the right things, and Tyreek Hill is publicly pumping Tagovailoa’s tires, but no matter how much he helps or new head coach Mike McDaniel schemes things up, the burden of proof – and expectations – will be on Tagovailoa.

Look smart to your friends:

-Tagovailoa will have to watch out for Patriots safety Devin McCourty, one of two active players – Marcus Peters is the other – with 30+ career interceptions.

-Hill gets much of the attention, but second-year receiver Jaylen Waddle is coming off a rookie campaign that saw him set the all-time NFL rookie record with 104 catches.

The pick: Dolphins 23 Patriots 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Baltimore -7

Baltimore is finally (mostly) healthy after a year of rampant, ridiculous injuries, but now the Ravens must deal with a different distraction; the ongoing contract saga of Lamar Jackson, who set a Friday deadline for a new deal. It seems likely that nothing will get done, given that Jackson is acting as his own agent, and he has practiced the next two days. The Jets won’t have Zach Wilson until at least Week 4, which means that Joe Flacco will go against his former team. New York is playing it cautiously with Wilson, and it makes sense why; they have faith that he made big strides from his rookie year, and there are enough pieces to like on the roster that if they can tread water with him out, they could sneak up on some teams the rest of the year.

Look smart to your friends:

-Mark Andrews, not Travis Kelce, led all tight ends last season with 107 catches, and 1,361 receiving yards. The 1,361 yards were the third-most by a tight end in league history, and the 107 catches were tied for third-most of all time.

-Linebacker C.J. Mosley is one of three active linebackers, along with Lavonte David and Bobby Wagner, with 700+ tackles and 10+ interceptions. Mosley also ranked fourth in the NFL in 2021 with 168 tackles, a career-high.

The pick: Ravens 35 Jets 13

TV: FOX            LINE: Washington -2.5

You would think that a Jacksonville-Washington season opener would not have much juice, and you might be right! However, I think Jacksonville will win the AFC South (I will delete all records of this if they stink), primarily because the team no longer has to deal with the poisonous, comically unprofessional joke of a head coach that was Urban Meyer. The Jags have some holes, but their fans should be excited. Guess what Washington fans shouldn’t be? Excited. Hope springs eternal, but even that phrase has its limits, particularly when Carson Wentz is your starting quarterback. Washington’s hopes for the season are pinned on a guy who cost the Colts a playoff spot with a truly miserable final-week loss to these very Jaguars. There are some pieces to like on the Commanders, but that’s it. But hey, they have a new nickname! Look at that! (Also, please don’t look closely at Dan Snyder or how he runs the franchise.)

Look smart to your friends:

-Running back James Robinson’s 2,403 scrimmage yards are the fourth-most by an undrafted player in his first two seasons in the common-draft era.

-J.D. McKissic is a true receiving threat out of the backfield. He is one of three running backs, along with Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara, with 120+ receptions since 2020.

The pick: Jaguars 27 Commanders 17

TV: CBS            LINE: Carolina -1.5

Here you have it, by far the most intriguing game in Week 1. Now, it’s not the best game in Week 1 by a longshot, but there’s no subplot juicier than the Browns having to face Baker Mayfield. Cleveland will trot Jacoby Brissett out there, which means it’ll be a busy day for the Browns’ running backs, who figure to shoulder a heavy burden for much of the season. Mayfield famously has so many chips on his shoulder that it’s a miracle he can get his pads on, but he’ll have to control his emotions to get the win that he desperately wants. Know what else would help him get that win? Christian McCaffrey touching the ball about 25 times. Of course, that might result in McCaffrey getting hurt—you know what? I’m going to stop right there out of respect for Panthers fans.

Look smart to your friends:

-Cleveland’s Nick Chubb is the only player in the NFL with 950+ rushing yards and 8+ rushing touchdowns in each of the past four seasons. He’s also the sixth player in history to accomplish that feat in his first four seasons.

-Wide receiver D.J. Moore is one of three players, along with Stefon Diggs and Travis Kelce, with 1,100+ receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. He also had a career-high 93 receptions in 2021.

The pick: Panthers 26 Browns 19

TV: CBS            LINE: Indianapolis -7

The Colts start the year with some quiet hype as a team that could surprise in the AFC, and I suppose I can see that, so long as Matt Ryan is well-protected. He certainly has the kind of offensive infrastructure around him with Indy that was not present in Atlanta; a very good offensive line, a star running back in Jonathan Taylor, and an intriguing wide receiver in Michael Pittman Jr. Houston, on the other hand? Hm. Well. Dameon Pierce looks like he’s going to be a solid player, and Davis Mills was actually better than he got credit for last year. Plus, Lovie Smith is a solid citizen with a steady hand who will make sure the team is prepared to play every weekend. Other than that? Yeah, you got me. This team could go 2-15 or 1-16, which I think is kind of their goal.

Look smart to your friends:

-Two players in the NFL have 8+ sacks in each of the past six seasons. One is Aaron Donald. The other? Indy’s Yannick Ngakoue. Bust that out at a watch party and people will revere you as a god of random knowledge.

-Linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill was one of just five players in the league to post 100+ tackles and 10+ tackles for loss last season. There’s a decent chance that unless you’re a Texans fan, this is the first time you’ve ever heard of Kamu Grugier-Hill.

The pick: Colts 30 Texans 24

TV: FOX            LINE: Tennessee -5.5

Well, now we find out if Brian Daboll is objectively really good at coaching offense, or if Josh Allen should be getting a sizable percentage of Daboll’s paychecks. Allen isn’t walking through that door, Daniel Jones is. So is Saquon Barkley, and it would make Daboll’s and Jones’ jobs easier if Barkley can stay healthy this season. New York’s offensive line should be mighty interesting, too. Particularly rookie right tackle Evan Neal. What are the Titans, exactly? You’d think I’d be more respectful of a team that was stopped from advancing to the AFC Championship Game for the second time in three years by a hideous Ryan Tannehill outing, but Ryan Tannehill is still their quarterback. And he’s usually pretty good. Usually. Can you really win big with him, though? The jury’s out on that one. Eventually, the wheels will fall off Derrick Henry, and when they do, things might not look too hot in Nashville.

Look smart to your friends:

-Barkley is one of just six players in the league to average 100+ scrimmage yards since coming into the league in 2018. It’s worth mentioning he’s played just 44 of a possible 65 games in that span.

-Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is one of the best players you might not know. He racked up career highs in sacks (8.5) and tackles for loss (12) in 2021.

The pick: Titans 21 Giants 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Green Bay -1.5

The post-Davante Adams era in Green Bay begins with a tough divisional road game against the Vikings. Sammy Watkins, rookie Christian Watson and Allen Lazard will try to fill the void left by the Adams trade, and the Packers figure to give teams a healthy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. We’ve found out that Aaron Rodgers has done both “therapeutic vomiting” and the psychedelic drug ayahuasca in recent months. He might be doing more of both if someone doesn’t step forward and capably fill Adams’ shoes. The story in Minnesota is that new coach Kevin O’Connell will freshen things up and get more out of Kirk Cousins which, well, I’ll believe it when I see it. Right now we know this much about Cousins; the final season numbers often look good, but Minnesota fans are left wanting. There are certainly offensive stars around in the form of Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen, and a few decent pieces on defense, but unless O’Connell can take Cousins to new heights, it won’t matter.

Look smart to your friends:

-Rodgers owns the Vikings. How much? Try 56 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions in 26 career starts against Minnesota. Green Bay’s record in those games? 16-10-1, which seems underwhelming.

-Jefferson has 3,016 receiving yards, the most-ever by a player in his first two seasons. He might not have that record for long if Ja’Marr Chase, his college teammate at LSU, has anything to say about it.

The pick: Packers 31 Vikings 30

TV: CBS            LINE: Kansas City -6

Life without Tyreek Hill begins for the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, though it’s not like Kansas City didn’t get good value in return for their star receiver, grabbing five picks from Miami in the process. JuJu Smith-Schuster and rookie Skyy Moore will try to fill the void left by one of the league’s most dangerous receivers, and Travis Kelce will do his usual thing, provided that the space he always seemed to find wasn’t in part created by Hill’s presence. Arizona and Kyler Murray are ready to get down to football after providing the sports talk world with a contract saga so farcical it seemed like something out of a movie. Murray has talent, no doubt, but it’s obvious that the team has concerns about how much film work he’s put into this point in his career. He’s got his mega-deal; now it’s time for him to show that the franchise’s faith in him was warranted – and without DeAndre Hopkins for the first eight games, no less.

Look smart to your friends:

-One player in the NFL has 80+ catches in each of the last six seasons. It isn’t a wide receiver, either. It’s Kelce, who racked up 92 receptions, 1,125 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2021.

-Running back James Conner didn’t put up huge numbers in terms of yardage, but he had a nose for the end zone. Last year, Conner was third in the NFL with 18 total touchdowns and second in the league with 15 rushing touchdowns.

The pick: Chiefs 34 Cardinals 31

TV: CBS            LINE: Los Angeles -3.5

Half of the AFC West begins Thunderdome-style action immediately as Las Vegas hops across the desert to take on the Chargers. Davante Adams and Derek Carr get their first chance to see if they can re-spark the chemistry they had as college teammates, while Chandler Jones looks to give Vegas’ pass rush some teeth. On the other side, Justin Herbert has drawn plenty of praise, particularly after finishing second in the NFL with 5,014 passing yards last year, but the Chargers fell short of the playoffs again (you might recall there was a bit of a dramatic end to their season, and that the Raiders were involved). Brandon Staley’s 4^th-down decisions will be heavily scrutinized, but they might not matter as much if Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa do to opposing offenses what their respective résumés suggest they’re capable of.

Look smart to your friends:

-Adams figures to get a ton of targets, but Hunter Renfrow should still be an attractive option for Carr. He let the team in catches (103), receiving yards (1,038) and receiving touchdowns (9) in 2021.

-J.C. Jackson was brought in to bolster the Chargers’ secondary in an offense-heavy division, and he figures to see plenty of action; he led the NFL with 23 passes defensed last year, and his 25 interceptions since 2018 are the most in the league.

The pick: Chargers 41 Raiders 38

TV: NBC            LINE: Tampa Bay -2.5

Death, taxes, and Tom Brady. Naturally, Brady led the league with a career-high 5,316 passing yards last year, and tossed in 43 touchdown passes to boot. He also put up the most-ever completions in a single season, but will Father Time finally catch up to him this year? (The answer is no, of course.) One thing working against Brady is the upheaval on his offensive line, which saw Ali Marpet retire and Ryan Jensen suffer a knee injury on the second day of training camp. If Tampa can surmount that, they’ll again contend for a title. The Cowboys, at least on paper, should win the NFC East. They have plenty of offensive weapons, they have a defensive player of the year candidate in Micah Parsons, and, well, two of the other teams in the division stink, to put it nicely. But these are the Cowboys, and weird things tend to happen. Mike McCarthy being coach doesn’t inspire confidence, either, unless, of course, your name is Jerry Jones.

Look smart to your friends:

-Mike Evans is great, but Chris Godwin may be ready to supplant him as Tampa’s top receiver. Godwin had a career-high 98 catches for 1,103 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2021.

-CeeDee Lamb became the first Dallas wide receiver with 1,000+ scrimmage yards in each of his first two seasons after posting 1,102 receiving yards last year.

The pick: Cowboys 30 Buccaneers 28

TV: ESPN            LINE: Denver -6.5

Russell Wilson Time begins for Denver, though his first kickoff as the man for the Broncos happens in a familiar setting; his old home in Seattle, where one imagines fans will have an interesting reception for their former quarterback, whose relationship with Pete Carroll and the franchise soured at the end. Wilson has plenty of weapons to choose from; can Nathaniel Hackett make it all work? What to say about the Seahawks? Yes, what indeed to say about the Seahawks. Well, for starters, they’re going to be bad. Very bad. Perhaps the worst team in the NFL. They certainly have the least-inspiring quarterback room in the league. As with the Texans, one imagines that that is kind of the point, and that they’ll be very interested in drafting, say, C.J. Stroud next April. They should certainly have a chance, because there’s not much to get excited about on their roster.

Look smart to your friends:

-Denver’s offense will get the attention, but they’ll have to stop high-powered divisional foes to win. To that end, Pat Surtain II led all rookies with 4 interceptions in 2021, and had a team-high 14 passes defensed.

-Linebacker Jordyn Brooks was a tackling machine last year, ranking second in the league with 183. He became the first player since 2000 with 180 tackles and 10+ tackles for loss.

The pick: Broncos 31 Seahawks 14