Week 13 'MNF' best bets: Two longshot touchdown props for Bengals-Jaguars
Tonight has the makings of a Jacksonville Jaguars romp, and as such, we're thinking it's best if we focus on that end for our touchdown props. Candidly, we continue to crush the TD market at the moment, so here's to another solid night.
D'Ernest Johnson (+425 DraftKings)
The safer bet is Travis Etienne, just so you know. Etienne has 48 red zone looks for Jacksonville, one of the highest marks in the NFL. His role as RB1 for the Jaguars is well-established, and considering Cincinnati is allowing the second-most yards per carry this year and nearly a touchdown/game to RBs, Etienne could pop.
Unfortunately, his price at -130 isn't quite as exciting as say, a +425 bet is. Enter: D'Ernest Johnson. Johnson has emerged as the second running back for Jacksonville the past two weeks, taking seven carries in both games, three of which have come in the red zone.
As 10-point favorites, there's a world where Johnson gets significant burn late in the game to keep Etienne fresh, and that's the ideal scenario to cash him at this price. Alternatively, perhaps Etienne needs a breather after running wild against this porous Bengals run defense. Johnson can cap off the drive and be a good teammate.
In what projects as an ugly "MNF" game, this is some tremendous value on a plus-matchup for Jaguars RBs.
Jaguars D/ST (+700 FanDuel)
Listen, this is probably a longshot, but we've got a very strong defense in Jacksonville playing a very bad quarterback in Jake Browning. There's a lot of ways a bet like this can cash. It's not hard to envision a sloppy Cincinnati effort, and this seems like a fun way to attack that belief.
Browning has one interception and has taken seven sacks in his three appearances this season. The Jags have already recorded two pick-sixes this year and 11 total interceptions. They've shown the ability to make plays, and Browning is a guy worth picking on.
More must-reads: