Week 5 AFC South predictions: C.J. Stroud could carry Texans to division lead

It was a pretty good Week 4 for the AFC South as teams went a combined 3-1 with Indianapolis’ 29-23 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Rams the only defeat for the division. Here are predictions for Week 5’s slate of games:

Houston Texans (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2): Not many believed a three-game win streak and possible division lead by Week 5 was possible for the rebuilding Texans, but that could be a reality by this time next week. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud looks like the real deal. He ranks fourth in passing yards (1,212), ninth in passer rating (100.6) and he’s tied for 10th in touchdowns (six). 

But perhaps more importantly, he’s one of just three QBs with zero interceptions through four games. Stroud is already miles better than Falcons QB Desmond Ridder, and the Texans have the superior defense between the two teams. Houston should win this game rather easily.

PREDICTION: Texans 31, Falcons 20

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-2): This game is as close to a coin flip as it gets. The Colts have the better offense (No. 16 to No. 28), but the Titans have the better defense (No. 12 No. 29). Anthony Richardson is more dynamic than Ryan Tannehill, but Derrick Henry is more explosive and more dangerous than Zack Moss. The point is: each team has its strengths.

Tennessee is inconsistent from week to week, and the offense has mustered more than 285 yards just twice. Tannehill is not trustworthy right now, and unless Henry gets the ball 30 times, the Titans have had trouble gaining yards and scoring points. 

Conversely, Indianapolis has had little trouble moving the ball (outside of Week 1), and the team has been much less of a wild card on a game-by-game basis. If Jonathan Taylor does indeed play this week, that also changes things a bit. This should be a close game, but the Colts have just a little more firepower to pull out a win.

PREDICTION: Colts 24, Titans 18

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-1): The Bills have a top-six offense and defense, and they’re a team not many want to play after their 48-20 domination of the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. After a rough Week 1, Josh Allen has turned it on the last three games, throwing for 812 yards, eight touchdowns and just one interception while rushing for 70 yards and two more scores. 

Likewise, Stefon Diggs has been on his “A” game this season, topping 100 yards in three of four games and catching three touchdowns against the Dolphins.

The Jags are a middle-of-the-pack team both offensively and defensively, and unless something lights a fire under Trevor Lawrence, who’s thrown for fewer than 250 yards in three of his four games, it’s tough to see Jacksonville keeping up with Buffalo’s high-octane passing attack. 

For the Jaguars to stand a chance, Lawrence is going to have to sling it around and Calvin Ridley is going to have to snap out of the three-week long nap he’s taken.

PREDICTION: Bills 42, Jaguars 24