Week 5 'TNF' player props: Using two profit boosts on our targets
Tonight kicks off Week 5 in the NFL, and as a gift, both DraftKings and FanDuel are handing out 50% profit boosts to be used on any play. I prefer applying those to straights, and just like that, we've got two looks tonight at +130 or greater for a pair of players to make some big plays this evening. Make sure you opt in to these offerings!
Terry McLaurin over 22.5 longest reception (+130 DraftKings w/50% boost)
-114 FD best standalone
I've been betting on explosive wide receivers the past few weeks who see this Chicago defense. Last week it was Marvin Mims, and the week prior was Justin Watson. Both had very low lines because of their boom-or-bust role in their offense. Both hauled in long catches to cruise past their over.
Terry McLaurin is different than those wideouts. His average depth of target (aDOT) is not 20+ yards down the field like these two. However, when I look at this Washington offense, he's still the best bet to break off a big play that I see.
This season, McLaurin is sporting an aDOT of 10.3, which isn't other-worldly but is leading this team's main receivers. He's been targeted three times 20+ yards down the field, with the next closest player seeing just one such pass.
Last year, I had McLaurin down as the ninth-most explosive WR based on an average of his aDOT (13.1), yards/catch (15.5) and 20+ yard catches (16).
We should probably get back to why I like to target the Bears. Chicago has allowed 16 passes of 20+ yards already this year, tied for fourth-most in the NFL. They've also just been gashed generally through the air, allowing 8.4 yards/pass attempt (second-highest).
Someone is going to break off a big play tonight, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few. Last week, Mims caught a 48-yard pass and Jerry Jeudy posted a 25-yard long. Week 3 saw Travis Kelce, Justin Watson and Marquez-Valdes Scantling all exceed this number set for McLaurin tonight.
Mike Evans torched this team in Week 2, catching two 50+ yard catches, and Chris Godwin also connected on a 24-yard long. In Week 1, Luke Musgrave and Jayden Reed each were on the receiving end of a 30+ yard pass.
Is that enough for you?
Give me Scary Terry for a big play tonight.
Justin Fields 50+ rushing yards (+165 FanDuel w/50% boost)
+110 FD best price
My read of this game is that Washington's defensive line wrecks this game for Chicago. It's easy to see the edge on paper, but there are also a few context clues I'm seeing from sportsbooks that suggest they expect the same.
For one thing, Fields's passing total seems way too low to me. It's set at just 193.5 yards, a number he's hit three times this year and just flew over last week. And Washington's secondary is not a strength, mind you; they've allowed 281.7 passing yards per game over their last three contests.
So, that felt off. Then you look at Fields's rushing attempts line, set at 7.5 or 8.5 this week. My guess is we're seeing this number because Washington is sure to flush him out of the pocket and force him to take off more often than we've seen this year.
When Fields logs 8+ carries in a game over the past two seasons, he's averaging 79.6 rushing yards per game, going for 50+ in nine of his past 10. That includes a meeting last year against this Commanders defense in which Fields piled up 88 yards.
I think we're all waiting to see the rushing output we grew accustomed to from Justin Fields last year. Tonight, he may have no choice. With constant pressure in his face, I'm expecting plenty of rushing tries.
Oh, for good measure, Washington is allowing the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks so far this season.
Enjoy the game!
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