There is no such thing as an unimportant playoff series. But with the Toronto Maple Leafs looking to reach the Eastern Conference Final for the first time in 23 years and looking to avoid a second-round loss heading into what is an uncertain offseason, one could certainly make an argument that their physical, intense clash with the Florida Panthers is the most important of this era of Maple Leafs hockey.
And now, this all-important series is down to a best-of-three. Tonight’s Game 5 back at Scotiabank Arena will determine whether Toronto heads back to Florida looking to clinch a Conference Final spot or looking to survive as they sit on the brink of elimination. These big stakes warrant a breakdown of some of the looming questions – both for tonight and the remainder of the series – that will help decide who moves on and who goes home.
Does Home Ice Matter?
Thus far in the series, both teams have remained perfect within the friendly confines of their home arena. That’s good news for the Maple Leafs, who are slated to host both Game 5 and, if necessary, Game 7 by virtue of holding the regular season edge over Florida in the standings. Whether the late stages of the series will play out in the same home team-friendly way remains to be seen, however.
You’ll surely recall the Maple Leafs’ flat performance at home in Game 5 of the first round series against the Ottawa Senators, as they failed to muster any kind of offence in a disappointing 4-0 loss. Hopefully, their similarly punchless Game 4 showing in a 2-0 road loss to the Panthers got all the offensive lethargy out of their system.
While you might expect home ice to yield an added boost for the Maple Leafs, that simply hasn’t always been the case. In the past eight seasons of consecutive postseason appearances, they have amassed an underwhelming 8-14 record at home. In the 2023 playoffs, their 1-5 record at Scotiabank Arena (including going 0-3 against the Panthers) all but ensured a second-round exit.
This postseason, things have been at least a little better. Getting shut out with a chance to advance in Game 5 against Ottawa has marked the only home loss to date, as Toronto is 4-1 overall. Optimistically, perhaps this Maple Leafs team is more playoff-savvy and has grown to embrace playing in front of their fans. It’s possible, however, that their struggles amidst the pressure of playing at home begin to materialize as they venture deeper into a series.
Will Auston Matthews Get Back to Scoring Goals?
To suggest that Auston Matthews has played poorly in the postseason so far is simply incorrect. Through 10 games, he sits third on the team in scoring as a point-per-game player (two goals and eight assists) while sitting second on the team in plus/minus (plus-3) thanks to his elite two-way play.
For one of the game’s top goal scorers, however, finding the net is a big part of the equation, particularly for the team captain who is on the books for $13.25 million per season. It would be less concerning if this were a curious trend isolated to this playoff run, but Matthews has averaged just 0.38 goals per game throughout his 65-game postseason career, compared to 0.64 goals in the regular season over the course of his career.
On one hand, the noise around Matthews has only increased on account of the Maple Leafs’ two-game stumble down south. The team has demonstrated their ability to win with him playing the role of playmaker and defensive support. But on the other hand, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies are the club’s only forwards with more than two goals to date. At the very least, a more shot-happy, offence-minded Matthews could help tweak a Toronto attack that the Panthers did well to hold at bay in Game 4.
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Which Goaltender Will Decide the Series?
Goaltending was always going to be a big storyline in the series, but it only became more of a focus after Sam Bennett’s elbow to the back of Anthony Stolarz’s head in Game 1 sidelined the Maple Leafs starting netminder. In his place, Joseph Woll looked solid in Game 2, struggled in Game 3, and then had his best playoff showing to date in Game 4 (albeit in a losing cause).
We know that Stolarz has been back on the ice working out with Maple Leafs goaltending coach Curtis Sanford, but have no clear idea of when we can expect to see him back in action as he recovers from his head injury. Woll, meanwhile, has playoff experience as something of a 1A goaltender and holds the trust of the team around him. Another strong showing (ideally in a winning capacity, as Toronto would surely prefer) in net would only serve to improve that confidence while quelling the sense that the team needs Stolarz between the pipes to win.
While the story within the Maple Leafs’ crease is rightfully dominating Toronto-centric media coverage of the series, it ignores a key factor on the other side of the ice. Panthers veteran goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been a step off from his usual steady self in the series. Sure, he recorded his fifth-career playoff shutout in Game 4, but that clean sheet only required 23 saves in what was not a particularly taxing night at the office. Overall, the 36-year-old is sporting an underwhelming 3.12 goals against average and .875 save percentage for the series, a far cry from the 2.32 GAA and .906 SV% he sported over last season’s Stanley Cup triumph.
With a Stolarz return in the series unlikely but not out of the question, it remains to be seen who will reign as the biggest x-factor in net over the remainder of what is an extremely tight series.
Can the Series Possibly Get More Intense?
It was easy to tell from the series’ outset that these division rivals don’t like each other a whole lot. After the Panthers managed to essentially bully the Maple Leafs into submission over their five-game 2023 series, Toronto seemed determined to match their opposition with a tougher and more physically imposing roster this time around. Then Bennett took out Stolarz and the chippy play and post-whistle scrums reached a whole new level.
Things have only escalated from there, resulting in what has already been a gruelling, physically punishing series through four games. It remains to be seen where we go from here. Will Florida be looking for retribution tonight in light of Max Domi’s questionable end-of-game hit on Aleksander Barkov in the closing moments of Game 4? Or will some of the skirmishes taper off as the stakes get higher in the series and neither team wants to take foolish, costly penalties?
The Maple Leafs did well in Game 2 to not allow the urge to seek vengeance on Bennett cloud their broader focus. One would think that two veteran clubs – one of whom is the defending Cup champion – would find a way to rein in their animosity for each other in the interest of taking two of the series’ final three games.
In a matter of days, all of these questions – and more – will be answered as we learn the fate of Toronto’s playoff push. By simply winning multiple round two games, they have already ventured further than any of the previous eight Maple Leafs’ playoff endeavours. Of course, that isn’t a satisfying benchmark for anyone involved with the organization, so buckle up for the intensity and drama that awaits.
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