Welcome to the Vancouver Canucks 2022-23 report card series. In this series, we at The Hockey Writers look back at each Canucks player from the past season, break down how their campaign went and assign a letter grade reflective of their overall performance. This edition will focus on right-winger Vasily Podkolzin.
Podkolzin Failed to Breakout
Expectations were high for Podkolzin coming into the 2022-23 season. The 2019 10th overall draft selection had a solid rookie season in 2021-22, tallying 26 points (14 goals, 12 assists) in 79 games. Among the 19 Canucks forwards who played last season, Podkolzin ranked eighth in wins above replacement with 0.7. In terms of even-strength goals above replacement, he was fifth with 3.7, good enough to rank above players like Elias Pettersson and Bo Horvat. Former head coach Bruce Boudreau trusted Podkolzin, constantly rewarding him with game time on the fourth line to continue his growth.
Podkolzin was a breakout candidate, but unfortunately, he regressed. This season, his wins above replacement dropped to a -0.2. His 3.7 even-strength goals above replacement in 2021-22 also plummeted to -1.9, and he scored just 7 points (4 goals, 3 assists) in 39 games. He slightly improved on the defensive end, however, from 0.3 even-strength defence goals above replacement in 2021-22 to 0.8 in 2022-23. Finally, Podkolzin’s 60% in WAR in 2021-22 decreased to 57% in 2022-23 (from JFresh’s paid Patreon subscription service). It was not a drastic regression from his rookie season, but it was not the direction the Canucks or Podkolzin were hoping for.
Podkolzin’s Play Post-Abbotsford Assignment
After a slow start to his sophomore season – including being a healthy scratch three times in late November – Podkolzin was assigned to the American Hockey League’s Abbotsford Canucks. The decision was more than warranted. Podkolzin was a ghost offensively, having the worst 5-on-5 points-per-minute rate among all Canucks forwards at the time, and it was a chance for him to regain some confidence, but more importantly, it gave him a chance to get consistent ice time.
In 28 games with Abbotsford, he tallied 18 points (7 goals, 11 assists), with the main focus being for him to develop into a better penalty killer, which he did quite often in those 28 games. The Canucks hoped Podkolzin could stand out more in aspects that did not revolve around scoring when he returned to Vancouver (from ‘How has Vasili Podkolzin’s game changed since his Abbotsford Canucks assignment?’ The Athletic, Feb. 27, 2023). Those hopes became a reality.
Vancouver called him up on Feb. 4, 2023, just right after the All-Star break. His offence did not improve (just 4 points in 22 games), but he was a much more solid forechecker. Before his assignment, Podkolzin forced 4.4 turnovers per 60 minutes, the lowest among Canucks forwards. After his assignment, he forced 7.9 turnovers per 60. With his improved play, the team was able to generate more chances, something that had been hard to do with Podkolzin on the ice.
Final Grade for Vasily Podkolzin: C-
Podkolzin’s play after his Abbotsford assignment helped boost his grade to average. He did not show the level of improvement the front office was hoping for, but he was always seen as a project since he was drafted. Frankly, it’s too early to ring the alarm bells regarding his development. Although he was nonexistent on the offensive end, he showed real promise as a forechecker. Obviously, the Canucks want to see Podkolzin flourish offensively; teams never want to see their former first-round pick become solely a forechecking specialist. However, if he keeps up the work as a forechecker and his offence comes around, that 10th overall selection will feel justified.
Analytics Provided By: Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck, Evolving-Hockey
More must-reads: