On paper, it seemed somewhat curious that Detroit Red Wings forward Alex DeBrincat would forgo a likely highly lucrative contract extension with the Ottawa Senators in order to play elsewhere. But not long after DeBrincat concluded his season in Canada’s capital, it became clear that the 2022-23 campaign would be DeBrincat’s only one in Ottawa.
Saturday, Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch shed some light on why DeBrincat decided to push for an exit from the Senators, writing: “sources say [DeBrincat] didn’t like his role as a second-line winger” behind Senators captain and face of the franchise Brady Tkachuk.
It’s not difficult to see why, going into the 2022-23 season, DeBrincat may have expected to receive top-line billing in Ottawa. The Senators surrendered the seventh-overall pick alongside second and third-round selections to acquire DeBrincat, who was coming off of a 41-goal, 78-point season.
Those numbers exceeded Tkachuk’s from 2021-22 (30 goals, 67 points) by a fair margin, and it’s understandable that DeBrincat may have viewed himself as the best fit for the coveted left wing spot next to number-one center Tim Stützle.
That didn’t happen, though, and DeBrincat ended up falling behind Tkachuk both on the depth chart and in terms of production. Although DeBrincat actually averaged slightly higher ice time per game than Tkachuk, Tkachuk is the one who got the bulk of time next to Stützle (a breakout number-one center) on the team’s first line.
According to Natural Stat Trick, Stützle had DeBrincat as his left-wing running mate for a total of 97:49 TOI and had Tkachuk in that role for 915:25 TOI in total. The trio only played 30:58 TOI together.
Part of the success DeBrincat had in Chicago was due to the fact that he got to play next to one of the most talented offensive generators in recent NHL history, Patrick Kane. This isn’t to say that DeBrincat isn’t a capable offensive generator in his own right, (one doesn’t hit 40 goals multiple times in a career without being an elite talent in his own right) just to note that DeBrincat is clearly at his best when his lethal finishing abilities are fed into by a strong playmaking partner.
Without someone of those capabilities to play next to full-time, DeBrincat’s production declined, and he scored 27 goals and 66 points. With Josh Norris locked in as the Senators’ second-line center thanks to a $7.95M AAV contract extension through 2029-30, DeBrincat was staring down a future playing next to Norris were he to sign a long-term extension in Ottawa.
Norris is a quality player who scored 35 goals in 2021-22, but not someone regarded as a high-end playmaker and passer. With Tkachuk seemingly untouchable as Stützle’s running mate and the Senators’ first-line left winger, it’s unsurprising that DeBrincat began to more heavily consider a future elsewhere.
Detroit is where DeBrincat’s future, at least for the next few seasons, lies. There doesn’t appear to be a top-end playmaker on the Red Wings’ roster who can compare to Stützle, but captain Dylan Larkin (79 points last season) isn’t too far behind. But looking ahead to training camp and the preseason, it’s imperative that the Red Wings find a way to make a DeBrincat – Larkin pairing work.
Neither Andrew Copp or J.T. Compher profile as the type of play-driving passer that DeBrincat has excelled with in the past, so for DeBrincat to be able to reach the heights in Detroit that he reached in Chicago, he’ll likely need what he couldn’t have in Ottawa: a firm grip on the first-line left winger job next to his team’s number-one center.
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