NHL playoff bets: Two bets from both Game 1s tonight
The conference semifinals get going tonight, giving us new series, new trends and new bets. We have Florida visiting Toronto in the East and Seattle heading to Dallas in the West. Be sure to check DraftKings today, they're giving out two 25% profit boosts for NHL, and I'm putting them both to use.
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
John Tavares over 3.5 SOG (+130 DK/FD)
This Florida-Toronto matchup figures to be a tremendous one for props, and as you may expect, SOG bets tend to catch the eye in Panthers games.
I'm loving the value on John Tavares here. He went over this line in all three home games last round, finishing with shot totals of four, six and five. That now makes six straight games in Toronto for Tavares at this 3.5 SOG number.
Now, Tavares didn't have great success against Florida this season, going over this number just once in four tries, but I think the situation calls for a backing of the Toronto captain tonight.
Florida ended the regular season with penalty issues, and that persisted against Boston. The Panthers handed out four or more power plays in six straight games to wrap up Round 1, including three straight on the road.
If that continues, we need to go to a power play shooter, and that most definitely is Tavares. He led the Maple Leafs in power play shots last round with six, and he also easily paced them in PP shots during the regular season, as his 103 shots on the man-up advantage were 26 more than Auston Matthews.
At +130, I'll take a chance.
Carter Verhaeghe point (-104 DK w/ 25% boost)
-130 without boost
I'm surprised Carter Verhaeghe is so reasonably priced to get a point, especially in a series that projects to be so high-scoring. I'm using my boost to get him to -104, but would be more than okay playing him at his standard price.
Verhaeghe, the Game 7 hero for Florida, compiled eight points in his last six games, including a point in four straight and three straight on the road. Against Toronto this season, Verhaeghe grabbed a point in three of four meetings.
I like goals on both ends and will gladly load up one of Florida's most important players to get involved.
Seattle Kraken vs. Dallas Stars
SGP: Dallas moneyline & under 7.5 goals (+108 DK w/ 25% boost)
-115 without boost
I don't hate the normal over here, and under 6.5 goals seems likely too, but I am taking an extra cautious approach here and pairing Dallas to win with under 7.5 goals scored. The reason for the conservative play is that these two have met in some high-scoring games. Their last meeting had nine goals, and three other meetings ended on seven goals. The under 7.5 is 5-1 in six games between these two.
However, I expect both sides to tighten up. Only one game last round for Dallas saw more than six goals scored, and goalie Jake Oettinger has allowed three total goals over his past three games. Seattle was in just one high-scoring game last series, with six of their games resulting in five or fewer goals. As such, the under is where my eye goes here.
I'm pairing that belief with Dallas moneyline, as I see them as the far superior team. As mentioned, they're getting great goalie play from Oettinger, and their offense has shown itself to be deep and dynamic. At home, I think they handle Seattle with relative ease.
Jason Robertson over 3.5 SOG (-108 DK)
If the Stars are to get off on the right foot, it's natural that Jason Robertson will be a driving factor. He went over 3.5 shots in four of six games in Round 1, including all three games at home. He racked up 15 SOG on 30 attempts in those three in Dallas, and he's finished with 11 SOG the past two times the Kraken have come to town.
Seattle hardly limited Colorado's shots last round, and I don't expect that to change in this series.
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