NHL Predictions: Lightning Rush Defence Must Step Up Against Rangers

Today’s NHL Predictions features an Eastern Conference matchup. We will look at Tampa Bay Lightning (34-25-6) predictions, as they take on the New York Rangers (43-18-4). On Saturday night, the Lightning dominated the Philadelphia Flyers by a score of 7-0. The Lightning registered four goals in the first period and ran away with the game. Furthermore, both Anthony Duclair and Matt Dumba played solid in their respective Lightning debuts.

On the other side of this matchup, the Rangers are a wagon this season and bolstered their roster at the trade deadline. New York added Alexander Wennberg and Jack Roslovic for the playoff run to aid their ambitions of capturing the Stanley Cup. Artemi Panarin continues to lead the charge, with 87 points on the season, sixth most in the NHL. In addition, the resurgence of Igor Shesterkin makes the Rangers even more dangerous. Shesterkin has back-to-back shoutouts for the Rangers heading into tonight’s matchup. 

After a rough stretch following the All-Star break, the Lightning must build momentum heading into the playoffs. Luckily, their new additions appear to click with Jon Cooper. The Lightning have solid odds of reaching the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs in a Wild Card spot as long as they maintain their current win percentage on the season. With that, here are three keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.

NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers

Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay

Clean Zone Exits

For a while, the kryptonite of the Lightning was their ability to generate scoring chances off the rush at even strength. However, over the course of the season, their zone exits have become their biggest weakness. The Lightning defenders are inefficient with their retrievals and constantly cough the puck up. Adding Matt Dumba should help clean things up on the breakout, but the Lightning still have work to do. The Rangers prefer to attack off the rush as their main root of offence, so the Lightning must work to recover the puck and counterattack. The Lightning must slow the game down and control the pace through thorough puck management, and they will find success against New York’s high-flying rush game. 

Generate Shots Directly Off Passes

As we continue to track Lightning games for our microstats tracking project here at Last Word, we notice the Bolts trailed in primary shot assists at 5v5, arguably the most vital passing metric of the workbook. In five recently tracked games, the Lightning recorded 72 primary shot assists on 98 shots via the rush, cycle, and turnovers. That’s a shots-off passes percentage of 73.5%, which isn’t terrible. In contrast, let’s put those numbers into context compared to their opponents. The opposing teams recorded 77 primary shot assists on 90 shots via the rush, cycle, and turnovers, for a shots-off-passes percentage of 85.6%, roughly 12% better than the Lightning. 

With a goaltender of Shesterkin’s calibre likely in goal, Tampa Bay must get him moving laterally across his crease and surprise him with quick passes to the slot. If the Lightning look to shovel pucks from the perimeter on goal, they won’t be very successful against the former Vezina Trophy winner. 

Defend The Fort

As mentioned earlier, the Rangers play a rush-heavy game to create scoring chances, mainly thanks to Panarin’s line. The Lightning must hold the fort down and defend New York’s rush attack. By far, this is the most critical out of the three keys to victory. Nicklaus Perbix and Calvin de Haan are the best rush defenders on the roster. Haydn Fleury is in de Haan’s usual spot on the third pairing. We believe de Haan will be a better choice for Dumba’s partner on pairing three come playoff time due to his offensive passing abilities. However, Fleury has played well in his small sample size. Below are the rush defence statistics for a couple of Lightning defencemen with over 75 minutes tracked.

Prediction Time

The Lightning and Rangers meet for the third time this season at Amalie Arena. In their previous match, the Rangers defeated the Lightning by a score of 5-1. The Lightning have found their replacements for Mikhail Sergachev, and Tanner Jeannot is likely returning to the lineup. Finally, the Lightning should scout the Rangers heavily, as these two teams are on track to meet in round one of the playoffs. 

On a side note, we will continue to expand the microstats workbook and share findings via articles. Additionally, the data has complimented our predictions for the Tampa Bay Lightning articles fabulously. We believe the Rangers complete the season sweep against the Lightning. 

Prediction: New York wins 4-2

Sources

Microstats via LastWordOnSports (Jack Pallotta and Kyle Pereira)