NHL prop bets for Feb. 17: Power-play points
We tested out an experiment last night with power-play points (PPP) in the NHL. We bet on a team's entire first power-play unit to get a PPP in the hopes that if the line scored, we'd get three hits.
Winnipeg delivered with a power-play goal, which cashed three of the power-play points in one go. Unfortunately our other circled spot, Carolina, failed to score on the power play, even coming away with nothing on a 5-on-3 — sigh.
Tonight there are 10 games on the schedule, and there is a decent chunk of games to consider for these power-play angles. Here's the data that fuels these picks, if you're interested in exploring the trends for yourself.
I'm going to roll with the same strategy here and take the entire top power-play line for a few of these spots. I'll be risking .2u on each player, which comes to 1u on the entire line.
There are three spots I feel good about tonight off the list above, so let's get to them.
New York Rangers
The Rangers are in the best spot I've seen yet for a power-play goal. They own the second-best power-play scoring rate, while Detroit has the second-worst penalty kill and averages the fifth-most penalties per game.
It's by far the best intersection I've seen yet for a power-play score.
PPP Bets & Odds on FanDuel:
- Chris Kreider (+154)
- Mika Zibanejad (+116)
- Artemi Panarin (-102)
- Ryan Strome (+225)
- Adam Fox (+152)
St. Louis Blues
The Blues are the other team tonight that sees an opponent in the bottom 10 of these important targeted metrics (penalties/game and penalty kill).
Montreal averages the seventh-most penalties per game and has the fourth-worst penalty kill. St. Louis's PP scoring rate is only 13th-best, but I like seeing a team on the upper half against a team like Montreal.
Unlike New York, there are some really great odds here for the Blues' top power-play line, so let's get ourselves a St. Louis power-play goal!
PPP Bets & Odds on FanDuel:
- Pavel Buchnevich (+180)
- Robert Thomas (+320)
- Ivan Barbashev (+390)
- Torey Krug (+210)
- Vladimir Tarasenko (+152)
Winnipeg Jets
We're going right back to Winnipeg, which now has the fifth-highest power-play scoring rate after last night's success.
The Jets will be final target for the night given their opponent. No team has a worse penalty kill in its last 10 games than Seattle. The Kraken are a bit middling in the penalties department, but I can't ignore this disparity in quality of PP units.
PPP Bets & Odds on FanDuel:
- Blake Wheeler (+186)
- Pierre-Luc Dubois (+210)
- Kyle Connor (+128)
- Mark Scheifele (+148)
- Josh Morrissey (+245)
Good luck tonight if you're following this experimental path with me. Let's see some power-play scoring!
As a reminder, I am betting only .2u on each player to record a PPP. In total, with the three spots, that equates to three units on the line. Let's turn a profit.
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