Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin will miss approximately two weeks with a lower-body injury, head coach Derek Lalonde said on Monday.
Larkin sustained the injury in Saturday’s 4-0 loss to the Panthers, although it’s unclear which play caused it. He did not play the final 10 minutes of the third period and was replaced by Joe Veleno on his line with Patrick Kane and Lucas Raymond for their final two shifts.
With their captain out for a crucial stretch of games as they try and maintain their grip on a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, Detroit’s recent record becomes all the more critical. They’ve gone 7-4-0 since the All-Star break, giving themselves a six-point cushion on a playoff spot with one more game played than the ninth-place Islanders. While they’ve posted a +6 goal differential in that time, their shot differential was -23, highlighting some concern. They were outshot 64-46 over their past two games, both losses against the Isles and Panthers.
Larkin remains the focal point of the Red Wings’ offense, leading the team with 26 goals and 54 points in 55 games. His 19:52 average time on ice is the highest among Detroit forwards, as is his 54.7 FO percentage. He has a team-high 51.4 CF percentage at even strength, although that hasn’t translated into dominating shot quality. His expected -3.6 rating places him in the middle of the pack among Red Wings skaters.
The 24-year-old Veleno will occupy Larkin’s top-line role for now, per multiple reports. He will center Kane and Alex DeBrincat as the Red Wings embark on a four-game road trip that concludes with a pivotal matchup against the Sabres for both teams next week.
Veleno, the 30th overall pick in 2018, has been elevated in the lineup multiple times this year but hasn’t quite done enough to solidify a top-six role. A 100-point scorer at the major junior level, COVID partially derailed his development, but he’s still settled into a top-nine role with decent long-term certainty. He has 11 goals and 26 points in 59 games this year while averaging 14:32, all career highs.
However, his possession impacts are markedly worse than Larkin’s, recording a 45.6 CF percentage at even strength and a -5.9 expected rating. His performance in a top-line role is something to monitor for a Detroit team that’s already struggled to dominate the shot counter as of late.
Larkin can be placed on IR to free up roster space, but the expected length of his absence doesn’t make him eligible for LTIR to free up salary cap space ahead of the March 8 trade deadline. Lalonde said Monday that he doesn’t anticipate making any initial recalls to replace Larkin, so he may remain on the active roster unless another forward sustains an injury.
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