After an incredible comeback against the Los Angeles Kings, the Edmonton Oilers will look to take revenge for their 2023 playoff loss to the Vegas Golden Knights in six games.
The Edmonton-L.A. series really was a tale of two teams.
All hope appeared to be lost when the Oilers went down 2–0 in the series. Partially thanks to the Oilers poor play in those first two games, the Kings looked outstanding. There was essentially no weak part in their game, all three top lines were dangerous and I genuinely thought they were serious cup contenders.
Then the series did a 180 so fast we all got a fierce case of whiplash just for watching. In the last two games especially, the Oilers were dominating possession and zone time so completely it was hard to believe they were playing the same team. Shots in Game 5 were 46–22!
Before the start of the series I wrote that the Oilers would have a tougher time with the Kings than they have had in the past, but that if they could beat them they would be galvanized for the next series and that is exactly what has happened. From an outsiders perspective the Oilers entered the playoffs with some uncertainty due to the many injuries that plagued the team to close out the season. The team really wasn’t putting up such poor results but something just didn’t feel quite right.
Now though the Oilers will enter the second round of the playoffs with a head full of steam and a heart full of confidence after coming back from a 2–0 series to win four straight. Many hockey fans had given up on the Oilers after game two but they never gave up on themselves.
What to expect from Vegas
The Vegas Golden Knights are an extremely skilled, deep team with three offensive defencemen, and above average, at times phenomenal, goaltending. There is no way around the fact that on paper the Oilers are the underdogs.
At centre Vegas is sporting Jack Eichel (28G, 94P), Tomas Hertl (32G, 61P), Nicolas Roy (15G, 31 P), and Brett Howden (23G, 40P). There is no team deeper than them down the middle of the ice.
For that reason I don’t see the Oilers holding their own all that well during 5v5 play, which brings me to the Oilers fundamental key to success: special teams.
Breaking down their special teams
An interesting weak point that the Oilers will have to exploit is that the Golden Knights did not have a good regular season penalty kill. At 75.7% they were 26th in the league. We saw last year how far the Oilers can stretch power play success and if the Oilers are going to win this series that will have to be a key to their game.
The dark side of that coin is that the Golden Knights were second best in the league on the power play and the Oilers were decidedly average on the penalty kill this year. This is especially bad because Vegas’ power play has not slowed in the playoffs, but the Kings pretty well had their way with the Edmonton penalty kill in the first round. That will have to be reversed fast.
Oilers lineup seems lacking
While the Oilers look thin when looking at the two lineups side by side, they do lead Vegas is some important regular season stats, namely CF% and xGF%. This alone will not be enough to win the series as the Oilers will have a hard time holding on to that advantage against the depth of Vegas.
Another huge problem for the Oilers is goaltending. The Golden Knights has a team Sv% of .913 compared to Edmonton’s .903. This may not seem like a big difference, but Adin Hill is considered to be a much more stable goalie than either Calvin Pickard or Stuart Skinner.
So far as injuries go, Mattias Ekholm is not likely to be in the lineup during this season and Troy Stecher is also day-to-day. For the Golden Knights, Pavel Dorofeyev is day-to-day. Dorofeyev is an impact player who had a breakout season and the Golden Knights will miss him, but the Oilers still being without Ekholm and Stecher is the bigger subtraction. Ekholm is the Oilers best defensive defenceman and would be a huge asset against the skilled Vegas side.
The two teams split their regular season series, each winning one and losing one game at home.
Series prediction
This is an extremely difficult job. On paper the Golden Knights are a juggernaut, and they don’t appear to be much different when they hit the ice. My trusty fork of reason for this prediction is two pronged:
First is that you really just don’t go very far betting against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl especially when they’re in the playoffs. Despite all the Edmonton deficiencies I listed above, the Knights just don’t have a McDavid or Draisaitl. McDavid has a career playoff PPG of 1.6 and Draisaitl 1.46. That’s third and fourth respectively on the all-time playoff PPG list over 35 games played, behind two other Edmonton alumni that I probably don’t need to list. One or the other, or both can step up and swipe a game from right under the opponent’s ample proboscides.
The second prong is that Adin Hill showed some uncertainty when faced with the god-mode Kirill Kaprizov in Games 2 and 3 against Minnesota. There were lengthy periods in that series where Kirill Kaprizov was the best player by far in the playoffs and Adin Hill didn’t look like himself. How will he fare against two of those? Can the rest of the Vegas Golden Knights handle the McDavid-Draisaitl factor?
Predictions from a chump like me have little to no value so please don’t rush to your betting app but I’m going to take the Oilers in seven. Odd numbered games go to the Oilers and even to the Knights.
Series starts tonight in Vegas, 6:30 PST/9:30 EST, don’t miss it.
stats from NHL.com and naturalstatrick.com
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