The Wild are likely to announce an extension for defenseman Jacob Middleton soon after he becomes eligible to sign one on Monday, The Athletic’s Michael Russo wrote earlier this week.
It’s likely to come in at four years between $16M and $18M total, working out to a cap hit between $4M and $4.5M.
Middleton, 28, faced increased responsibility in 2023-24, his second full season in Minnesota. The shutdown blue-liner averaged a career-high 19:49 per game, with captain Jared Spurgeon missing most of the season due to multiple injuries and top matchup defender Jonas Brodin missing significant time as well.
With increased opportunity came increased production for Middleton, who posted a career-high 25 points (seven goals, 18 assists) in 80 games. His -15 rating was a career-low, but he’s one of more than a few Wild skaters whose ratings were negatively impacted by poor seasons from goaltenders Marc-André Fleury and Filip Gustavsson.
He’s never had spectacular possession numbers on his own, but he did prove to be a good partner for Spurgeon in 2022-23 when the two were healthy at the same time. Skating in 76 games, they controlled 53.5% of expected goals when deployed together, per MoneyPuck.
The same couldn’t be said for him and rookie Brock Faber this year, who controlled only 48% of expected goals and was Minnesota’s most commonly deployed pairing at over 800 minutes together.
Middleton has certainly proven he can hold his own as a complementary top-four piece, but with him set to turn 29 midway through next season, there’s little room left for further development. Considering a four-year, $4M-$4.5M AAV deal is likely similar to what the much more established Chris Tanev will land this summer, it seems a little steep.
Evolving Hockey’s projections concur that it’s a tad above market value, pegging a four-year extension for Middleton in the $3.8M AAV range.
Wild general manager Bill Guerin also has a recent history of handing out premature extensions that are not aging well. He inked depth center Frédérick Gaudreau to a five-year, $10.5M extension with trade protection after last season ended, and he proceeded to have his worst year in the State of Hockey with just 15 points and a -23 rating in 67 games this year.
A four-year, $16M deal set to kick in next season for Marcus Foligno also looks a tad steep after the 32-year-old struggled with injuries last season and had only 10 goals and 22 points in 55 games.
That said, the Wild will have some cap flexibility opening up when Middleton’s extension would go into effect for the 2025-26 season. The combined penalties from the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts will drop from $14.744M to just $1.667M, where they’ll remain annually through 2028-29.
Middleton, whom Minnesota acquired from the Sharks at the 2022 trade deadline, is entering the final season of a three-year, $7.35M deal with a $2.45M cap hit.
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