Premier League best bets: Mind the gap
It’s Matchday 18 of the Premier League season and winter is officially coming. Each team is set to play three fixtures between now and the start of 2024: one this weekend, one on Boxing Day and one on New Year’s Eve. We certainly don’t condone violent play over here, but when Aston Villa’s Boubacar Kamara and Spurs’ Yves Bissouma picked up straight red cards last weekend and earned three-game suspensions, they might’ve had the right idea. They’re the only Premier League players who will get any rest this holiday season.
Gaps are forming up and down the table as we rattle toward the halfway point of the season. Four points separate the top three from Manchester City in fourth; four points separate Brighton in ninth and Chelsea in 10th; five points separate Nottingham Forest from the relegation zone. These gaps aren’t massive, but they’re something, and the ways they grow and shift this holiday season will have a big impact on how the Premier League shakes out in May. Our advice to bettors, then, as we head into this blitz of games, is quintessentially British: mind the gaps.
But where are the best bets hiding? We think you’ll find them here:
West Ham vs. Man United — Two teams, alike in points, in fair England where we lay our scene. West Ham had an odd 2022-23, winning a European trophy while finishing in a disappointing 14th in the league, but it’s bounced back with style this season to snatch eighth. Man United, meanwhile, did the opposite: allowed 2022-23’s momentum and good will to dry up entirely as it fell to seventh.
The opposing journeys of West Ham and United make this game feel ripe for a draw. West Ham has pulled off strong results against teams near it in the table like Newcastle, Chelsea, Brighton and Spurs. United, while improved from the doldrums of a few weeks ago, still doesn’t really look like it’s playing for a win. At +260, we think betting on this one to end in a tie is the smartest move.
Wolves vs. Chelsea — This is the sleeper hit of this weekend’s fixtures, the "anything could happen" game that makes sports writers rub their hands together with glee. Both Wolves and Chelsea have been wildly inconsistent this season, pulling off big results against teams like Manchester City while failing to dominate teams like Fulham. How will they handle each other? No one, not even coaches Gary O’Neil and Mauricio Pochettino, can tell you. But we’ve got our eye on Wolves’ Hwang Hee-chan. The Korean winger turned up for Wolves against mid-table and better opposition like Fulham, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Man City, Liverpool, Crystal Palace, and Brighton. At +333 to score against Chelsea, we think he’s a great one to back.
Tottenham vs. Everton — Regular readers of this column know we’re big fans of Spurs’ Brazilian striker Richarlison; this fixture will rise or fall based on how he reacts to facing his former club.
Richarlison has found a rich vein of form in the past few weeks. He’s scored in two consecutive league games, and honestly, we couldn’t be happier for him. He’s been open about the toll his dry spell took on his mental health and has shared his progress openly with Spurs fans. More of that, please — it’s wonderful to see big-name athletes taking mental health seriously.
At +210 to score against Everton and +400 to get booked, he’s the one we’re watching closely. Richarlison is a passionate, heart-on-sleeve player who will relish the emotional charge of this tie.
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