Premier League best bets: The second act begins as the festive season ends
Welcome to Matchday 20 of the Premier League, the last weekend of the festive season. We’ve officially made it halfway through the season, and our collective reward is on its way: a glorious two-week break to recover from the madness of our Premier League December. We’ll have 11 days of quiet between the final whistle of West Ham vs. Brighton on Tuesday and the kickoff of Chelsea vs. Fulham for Matchday 21.
But before all that rest and relaxation, let’s talk about what we’ve learned from the Premier League this December. We’ve learned that Arsenal and Liverpool are legitimate title challengers, and that Manchester City — currently — are not quite on their level. We’ve learned that Aston Villa is the real deal, and while it might not continue its ‘why not us’ title run of the past few weeks, it will certainly upset the traditional Top 6 of the league. We’ve learned that Newcastle has a long way to go before it’s ready to compete on so many fronts, that we doubt West Ham at our own peril, that Chelsea’s amortization game looks to be a bust, and that Iraola’s Bournemouth has a little something special.
(We’ve learned absolutely nothing about Wolves, of course, who remain a wild, head-scratching aberration, and what a treat it is to have a team like theirs around.)
Will those lessons last into Act II of this Premier League Season? Or will they all be undone once Manchester City starts its inevitable 12-game unbeaten run and storms back to the top of the league? Only time will tell … but here’s what we’re keeping an eye out for this weekend:
Aston Villa vs. Burnley — This game will take place at Villa Park, the Premier League’s strongest fortress, so it’s hard to see Villa losing it. But Villa’s performances this season throw up something interesting: a tendency to concede lots of goals, particularly against lower-table opponents, and win anyway. Villa has kept just three clean sheets in the league, against Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City. Every other team has found a way through the Villa defense.
Burnley, therefore, could be an interesting bet this weekend. It’s certainly not favored, but recent history shows that they should be able to snatch a goal from its hosts even if it can’t snatch a win. We’re eyeing a Villa win with at least one Burnley goal at +187.
Fulham vs. Arsenal — One of the most congenial London Derbies on offer returns to Craven Cottage this weekend as 13th-placed Fulham takes on title challengers Arsenal. We mention these table positions because even we can’t quite believe that Fulham — a team that has impressed just about everyone this season — is only 13th. The problem is recent form; Silva’s men have lost their last three Premier League games on the bounce against Bournemouth, Burnley and Newcastle after executing two back-to-back 5-0 victories against West Ham and Nottingham Forest.
Can Fulham right its course against Arsenal? It’s performed beautifully against top opposition this season (who could forget its 4-3 heartbreaker against Liverpool) but we think it’ll struggle to challenge Arsenal’s icy calm. So we’re keeping our eyes on Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka instead. The winger hasn’t scored in quite a few weeks and is due for a belter — at +200 to find the back of the net here, we think he’s a steal.
If you’re going to bet on Fulham, look no further than Alex Iwobi. The Nigerian midfielder spent several years playing with Arsenal and will be full of vim and vigor for this one. He’s at +700 to score.
Tottenham vs. Bournemouth — This should be a fun one — two likable teams who have long struggled to deliver on their promise finally getting their moments in the sun. Spurs will be less rested, having faced Brighton on Thursday before prepping for this one on Sunday, so we’ve got a sneaking suspicion that Bournemouth might get something here. At +333 for a draw, it’s a suspicion that could pay out nicely.
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