Premier League Game of the Week: Liverpool and Man City in a title race six-pointer

When two teams with similar points hauls face each other in the Premier League, we call the match a "six pointer." We usually see these six pointers in the context of the relegation zone; winning a game gives you three points while taking three away from a close competitor makes them feel twice as valuable. This year, though, we have a different kind of six-pointer: A title race six-pointer.

After 27 games, there are just two points separating Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table. It's the closest title race in a decade, and if it continues apace, two of these teams will shatter the all-time points record for second- and third-place finishers. The title will be won or lost in the remaining games these three teams share.

This weekend, Liverpool will host Manchester City at Anfield for one of those all-important matches. The two met at the Etihad in November and played a tense 1-1 draw, with Erling Haaland scoring in the first half and Trent Alexander-Arnold equalizing in the second. Will they draw again and hand Arsenal the advantage in the title race? Or will one break through and put its first finger on the Premier League trophy?

(Liverpool vs. Man City, Sunday, March 10, 11:45 a.m. ET, USA Network.)

Here's what we're keeping an eye out for:

Result. Most outlets are categorizing this match as "too close to call" and honestly, we get it. Liverpool hasn't lost since it faced Arsenal a month ago; Man City hasn't lost since it faced Aston Villa back in December. But we're backing Liverpool to win this one at +187. Why? The Anfield factor. Liverpool has a stellar record against City at home: in the most recent 20 meetings, it's won 13, drawn 6 and lost just one. (That was a 4-1 hammering in 2021, and the less said about that, the better for the Reds.) What can we say? Things just happen after the Kop sings "You'll Never Walk Alone."

Player to Score or Assist. Take your pick: just about anyone featured in these two star-studded lineups could score or assist on Sunday. But we've got our eyes on Liverpool's Luis Diaz, a player who comes alive in big matches and played brilliantly this week against Sparta Prague in the Europa League. He's a nightmare for other teams to deal with and an interesting option at +150 to score or assist. Want slightly longer odds? Try backing him to score outright at +250.

Goal Timing. The odds have caught up with Liverpool's penchant for late goals: they're at -120 for a goal from either side after the 80th minute. But fans of Liverpool's insane late runs can push for a larger return by backing it to score more goals in the second half than it does in the first. At +137, it's a great option to show support for Klopp's excellent in-game substitutions.