Three of the top four seeds made their way to the 2024 ATP BNP Paribas Open semifinals in Indian Wells, California. Jannik Sinner against Carlos Alcaraz has all the makings of a classic and is a rematch from last year, same stage. Meanwhile Daniil Medvedev will face an inspired Tommy Paul, who’s always been very solid at this venue. Who do you think will prevail?
ATP Indian Wells Semifinal Predictions
Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-head: Medvedev 2-0
A lot has been said on Daniil Medvedev not enjoying the conditions in Indian Wells all that much, but he’s already into the semifinals for the second year in a row. While his 2023 came to a sudden crash against Carlos Alcaraz in the final, he did play very well on his way there. This time his form going into the event wasn’t that red-hot, but it didn’t stop him advancing despite a tricky draw so far.
Tommy Paul took advantage of Novak Djokovic’s early departure to emerge victorious in the first quarter, but maybe the American star wouldn’t have needed that anyway. After all he’s been excellent on these courts over the years and owns an 11-2 record since the beginning of February. This is his best shot at Medvedev yet, but will he able to take it? The Russian should be perceived as the favorite as a few opponents already were supposed to take advantage of his game being a little weaker in slower conditions and yet Grigor Dimitrov or Holger Rune just couldn’t hit through him.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz
Head-to-head: 4-4
Historically this has been considered a very tricky matchup for Carlos Alcaraz but now that Jannik Sinner has arrived and won a Slam, their close record between each other doesn’t stand out anymore. The Italian is still unbeaten for the season and has looked nearly unstoppable here. His serve/return game is incredibly strong at the moment as he completely overwhelms his opposition in short exchanges.
But if Alcaraz is going to beat Sinner soon, it has to be clay or a court with a profile like this one. The Spaniard feels so comfortable here and the slower conditions bring out a lot of creativity in him, also forcing him to rely on his natural instincts on the defense. That was usually an issue for him against Sinner as he would start rushing when trying to neutralize the violent ball-striking. It’s impossible to go against the Italian right now, but there’s a lot to like about how Alcaraz has performed this fortnight. For the sake of their rivalry this year, he’s got to at least make this competitive.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
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