Why Alabama might want to sit Tua Tagovailoa against LSU

Perhaps you have forgotten the story of the 2011 college football season, so I'm here to remind you: On November 5 that year, No. 1 Alabama played No. 2 LSU in what was dubbed the "Game of the Century." Defense ruled; neither team scored a touchdown, and LSU won 9-6 with a field goal in overtime. 

In retrospect, that game felt like the culmination of the pre-playoff era: Two months later, the same teams met in the BCS National Championship game. Alabama won, 21-0. In this way, we learned that a sport that emphasizes the importance of the regular season -- that literally sells itself on the mantra of “Every Game Counts” -- had sold us a bill of goods.

Alabama’s regular-season loss to LSU wound up meaning nothing; and if anything, the playoff era has further muddled the urgency of the regular season in exchange for the thrill (and financial payoff) of a four-team bracket. 

Maybe you think that trade-off is worth it. I generally do. But as we careen toward November 9, I wonder if we’re headed toward a vortex where the same loophole will apply. On that afternoon, Alabama will play LSU in Tuscaloosa. It seems increasingly likely this will be a match-up of college football's No. 1- and No. 2-ranked teams. It will undoubtedly be billed as the next “Game of the Century” -- presuming that Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is able to recover from the same nagging high-ankle sprain that plagued him during the tail end of last season. 

And yet, at least for Alabama (7-0), it may not really matter if it wins or loses. Play along with me here. Let's say Tagovailoa doesn’t play against LSU because his ankle is still too balky post-surgery to go up against one of the nation’s best defenses.

Let’s say Bama muddles through with backup quarterback Mac Jones, and LSU wins, say, 13-7.

Let’s say both teams go undefeated the rest of the way, with LSU defeating Georgia for the SEC Championship and Alabama ending its season with a convincing victory over a pretty good Auburn team. 

And let's remember that part of the College Football Playoff committee’s mandate includes taking injuries into account. Do you really think that Alabama is going to get left out of that top four? 

The Tide has never been left out in the history of the playoff era, and I don’t think it would get left out this season. And that’s why, if I were Alabama coach Nick Saban, and Tagovailoa’s ankle is still balky as the LSU game approaches, I’d consider trying to win without him. 

I recognize this could risky. As The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel pointed out this week, it’s possible that, with a loss to LSU, Alabama’s overarching resume would not look as good as Oregon’s or Clemson’s. It’s possible the Tide could get locked out of the playoff. 

But I think it would be nearly impossible for the committee to ignore Alabama’s recent history. There's a certain power to Saban’s legacy and Alabama’s overarching reputation that would leap the Crimson Tide over a team like Oregon, no matter what.  

We saw what happened last season when Alabama reached the title game when Tagovailoa was clearly not entirely healthy: The Tide got thrashed by Clemson. If I were Saban, I might worry more about that history repeating itself than I would about losing a regular-season game to LSU.

Maybe it’s an odd loophole he’d be taking advantage of in the playoff era, and maybe he’d be counting on Alabama to traffic on its reputation to earn a playoff spot. But if it leads to a healthy Tagovailoa for a College Football Playoff semifinal game in late December, it might be worth the risk.

Because as Saban learned in 2011, in college football, every game matters, right up until it doesn’t.