AFC Championship bets: Bengals player props

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated Jan 27, 2022 4:41 PM ET

We have what should be two great games this weekend in the NFL, and the first is Bengals-Chiefs, a rematch from Week 17, which Cincinnati won 34-31 at home.

We broke down this game from a spread perspective, picking a winner and betting angle, so check that out if you're looking for more perspective on the AFC Championship Game.

This game brings with it two explosive passing offenses and defenses that shouldn't offer much resistance. With that in mind, there are prop spots to consider. We have a few for each team, and we'll start with focusing on Cincinnati.

Stay tuned for Kansas City prop options.

Cincinnati Bengals Props

The Bengals side offers us some intriguing value, and I'll be focusing on the passing game here. The Chiefs see a lot of passes against them, a mixture of a vulnerable secondary and an offense that puts up points in a hurry and forces opposing teams to play catch up.

As I mentioned in my AFC Championship ATS preview, linked above, I see the Chiefs winning this, and I do think there is a very real possibility it's not close.

Even if it is close, it will be because Joe Burrow is moving the ball with his receivers, so it's there we start with our prop bets.

Joe Burrow long completion over 39.5 yards (-108 FanDuel)

We bet Joe Burrow's passing yards over last week to success, and the reasoning to target his long completion here is the same: this team has great receivers and I can't decide who to bet on.

When that happens, I turn to the quarterback, and I like Burrow to complete a long pass in this game, especially after watching Josh Allen pick apart this defense last week.

Beyond that recency bias, there's plenty that supports this pick.

Burrow has a 50-yard completion in four of the last five games, including a 72 yarder against Kansas City, one of many huge chunk plays the Bengals passing game produced in that game.

Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most 40 yard passes this season, at 13, so they've shown a proclivity for getting beat deep.

On the season, Burrow has covered this prop at a 61% rate, a number that goes up to 75% on the road.

Joe Mixon: -130 SGP on DraftKings

Mixon is another I want a piece of this Sunday. As you can see from the tweet above, he's rolling in the receiving game lately, seeing a steep uptick in usage since Week 16.

Kansas City is a great target for running backs involved in the passing game, letting up the fourth-most receptions per game to RBs (6.16) and the third-most yards (48.79 per game).

Mixon has 5+ targets in each of the last four games, and has hit his current prop lines in three of four.

In an effort to give us a better floor of reliability, I'm combining two Mixon receiving props on DraftKings in their Same Game Parlay builder:

Mixon over 24.5 receiving yards
Mixon 3+ receptions

The -130 odds aren't tremendous, but this feels like a safe option on Sunday. I do like his receiving yards total at 28.5, if you want to take just one option.

I also considered Mixon's long catch prop, at just 13.5 yards. He has a 20+ yard catch in four straight, but ultimately, I like the SGP of some lower numbers for the Bengals running back.

That will wrap my preferred angles when targeting Cincinnati player props for this game. Props for the other three teams will be posted right here on Yardbarker in the coming days as we near Conference Championship weekend. Good luck on Sunday!

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