AFC underdog report: Wild-card round
Six teams from the AFC are about to meet in the playoffs. Here’s how three of them can score an upset over favored opponents.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
No NFL team faces longer odds than the Steelers this week. After backing into the playoffs, they’ll face a Bills team that gained the fourth-most yards (6,366) while allowing the ninth-fewest yards (5,222) in 2023.
They’ll also face a quarterback in Josh Allen who would have led the league with 18 interceptions if not for Sam Howell’s 21. Allen threw at least one interception in all but three games this year and had two against the Dolphins in Week 18.
Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt will likely miss the game with an MCL sprain, but Pittsburgh’s pass rush is rated as fourth-best in the league by Pro Football Focus. If the team makes Allen uncomfortable, he could throw the game away.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
With injuries to wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert, Miami’s high-powered offense struggled in two straight losses to end the regular season. Assuming both are back for Saturday's game, the Dolphins could have just enough firepower to knock off the defending Super Bowl champions.
While Tyreek Hill fell short of his 2,000-yard goal, he still finished as the league’s leading receiver with 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns. Mostert led all running backs with 18 scores and rookie De’Von Achane averaged 81.5 yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry over his last two games.
Miami’s defense has been good, but not great this year. The team gave up the 10th-fewest yards (318.3) but allowed the 11th-most points per game (23.0) in the regular season. Fortunately, the Chiefs’ 40 dropped passes were second only to the Browns' 42.
In what’s expected to be sub-zero temperatures at Arrowhead Stadium, holding on to the ball could be difficult. The running game could be key for both teams, and if so, would clearly favor the Dolphins.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (+2.5)
If the Texans hope to win their first playoff game since 2019, they’ll need a big game from their rookie quarterback. Houston lost at home to Cleveland in Week 16 but C.J. Stroud missed the game with a concussion. Meanwhile, Browns quarterback Joe Flacco threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns with another rushing score in a 36-22 victory.
Stroud likely earned himself Offensive Rookie of the Year honors as the NFL’s eighth-leading passer (4,108 yards), but he’ll really need to earn his yards against the Browns' top-ranked pass defense.
Recently, most of Stroud’s yards have gone to Nico Collins. In Week 18, the third-year receiver and former third-round pick caught all nine of his targets for 195 yards and a touchdown. With 1,297 yards, he finished the regular season as the league’s eighth-leading receiver and should remain Stroud’s No.1 option if Houston hopes to beat the Browns.
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