Aaron Rodgers could be on the verge of making history this season and doing something that hasn’t been done since his predecessor in Lambeau: winning three straight NFL MVP awards. Brett Favre was the last player to do so, taking home three straight trophies from 1995-1997.
Many oddsmakers at online sportsbooks around the country think it will be an uphill battle, with his odds currently standing at fifth-best, trailing Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Justin Herbert.
Besides the obvious on-field dominance that comes with winning the award, there are a few things a player needs to have going for him to be considered for the trophy. These elements include having a strong narrative for the season, winning the popularity contest, and winning over the hearts and minds of voters.
The narrative
Just because it’s not scripted doesn’t mean football isn’t show business, and having a strong storyline is sometimes just as important to winning these awards as the stats you produce. For Rodgers, it can go one of two ways this year.
He’s won the trophy the past two seasons and then suffered disappointing playoff exits. If he’s just his normal level of excellent, then it may be a little harder to justify handing him the award for the third year in a row only for another early exit to follow.
However, with the departure of Davante Adams, Rodgers has a chance to prove himself once again. If he can exceed expectations and lead the Packers to the No. 1 seed in the NFC with rookies like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs playing key roles on offense, then he can flip the narrative and turn himself into an underdog overcoming the obstacles.
The popularity contest
There’s no denying that Rodgers is one of the faces of the game and a superstar in the truest sense of the word.
But (without re-hashing ancient history) it’s hard to say he’s more well-liked than he was a year ago. It didn’t hurt him last year, but everything seemed to break right for him to be the clear front-runner by the time the season was over, with much of the competition facing some struggles down the stretch.
His play will need to overcome any negative flack he gets from detractors.
Voter fatigue
This may very well be the biggest issue in picking A-Rod to win again. Voters just might be a little bored.
NFL MVP voters have voted for Rodgers four times already. While he deserved it each time and may again this season, his level of brilliance can get boring for neutrals every once in a while.
Combine that with all of the young, exciting quarterbacks in the league who have never won the trophy before. Suddenly, Rodgers and Brady might seem like the boring old guys. Allen, Herbert, and Joe Burrow are fresh young faces waiting in the wings for the baton to be passed to them, and players like that can get a lot of hype.
It’s a bit annoying to say, but the biggest roadblock to Rodgers winning MVP again might just be boredom.
It’s an achievement that Brady or Manning haven’t been able to accomplish, so having both of the Packers’ last two quarterbacks do it would be a point of pride for fans all over Wisconsin.
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