Just because Ben Johnson likes taking fun shots at Packers coach Matt LaFleur every chance he gets, and the Bears managed to win in Green Bay even with Matt Eberflus as coach, doesn't mean they've finally pulled ahead of their rivals.
They beat the Packers with QB Jordan Love pulled from their season-ending game, running back Josh Jacobs yanked as well, and, most importantly, Eberflus had no real strategic decisions to foul up in that regular-season ender. It was either Cairo Santos makes the kick and they win or they lose.
It could be much different with the Packers back at full strength, but there's no doubt the Bears have made improvements in how they stack up against the Packers within the NFC North, as well. And the coaching change does make a huge difference.
Fortunately for the Bears, Green Bay barely uses free agency. It's through free agency and trading that the Bears can expect to be competitive with every team in the division this season.
Here's who looks like they have the edge in that Bears- Packers matchup now after the draft and free agency.
Coaching
Matt LaFleur did nothing to take a step back after beating the Bears 11 straight times, but the Bears made the huge improvement by bringing actual game planning to bear against the Packers in the form of Ben Johnson and staff.
The Bears will be in a different defensive scheme this year under Dennis Allen and that can be problematic early as players try to find their fit. Meanwhile, the Packers will be in the same offensive and defensive systems as last year and this lends itself to players moving faster, without thinking. Bears unfamiliarity with the systems enters into his one greatly. Come back and reassess after half the season. It wouldn't be surprising if that Green Bay advantage looks much smaller, if there is one at all. Edge Packers
Quarterback
Jordan Love's second season as starter resulted in 770 fewer passing yards, 11 interceptions for the second straight year and 25 now in 42 career games played, and a drop incompletion percentage by 1.1% Will the real Love stand up? Or maybe that was the real Love and Year 1 wasn't.
Caleb Williams needs to take some of the risks downfield that Love did last year or he's going to get labeled a Checkdown Charlie. It was his first year in the NFL, and with clownish offensive coaching at that. His instruction level should make a great leap forward this year, and if they get the running game to work better he could take a huge step forward, as well. No Edge
Running backs
The Bears can only wish they had a running back like Josh Jacobs. Even if they bring in a veteran running back, they won't be able to approach what Jacobs does in terms of power, toughness and speed for the Packers offense. The problem for the Packers is they could use more backfield contributors. Jacobs is averaging 267 carries a year in the NFL and had 301 last year, with 36 receptions. A total of 337 touches is the kind of workload that breaks an NFL back's back, so to speak.
D'Andre Swift isn't Jacobs but is not as bad as last year's performance shows. His 3.8 yards per carry in the Shane Waldron offense was the worst of his career. How he'll do in Johnson's attack isn't certain but in 2022 he carried 99 times behind a Lions offensive line that wasn't quite what it became in 2023 and he gained 5.5 yards per carry. Edge Packers
Wide receivers
The Packers hope they've settled their problems with a downfield threat by drafting Texas speed demon Markus Golden. They have Jayden Reed and a bunch of wide receivers capable of contributing but none who ever ascended among the division's elite alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson and DJ Moore. Luther Burden III could be the missing receiver piece Ben Johnson needed to open up the field, but it's no more certain than the bunch of young Packers receivers until they actually show what they're capable of doing. No Edge
Tight ends
Adding Colston Loveland to Cole Kmet and Durham Smythe gives the Bears a complete tight end trio with the downfield threat, the in-line force and a blocking tight end. The Packers enjoyed better production from Tucker Kraft last year with 50 catches, 707 yards and seven TDs, but Luke Musgrave suffered a season-ending torn ankle ligament last year. The Packers come up lacking in experience, blocking, speed and pass-catching ability in this one when compared to Bears tight ends. Edge Bears
Offensive line
The rehabbed Bears line finally could put them at a level close to the Packers, who for years have won this battle to dominate the series. The Bears have never been able to get Kenny Clark out of their backfield on big short-yardage downs but now, with Drew Dalman, Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, they might actually have a chance. The 22 sacks allowed by Green Bay's offensive line last year is wildly beyond the imagination of the Bears, who have usually given up that many by Week 6 or 7 in the last five years.
The Packers may have made a steal with the signing of guard Aaron Banks and it strengthens their line overall, although the Bears' had a much more impactful acquisition in Thuney. The Bears line needs to prove it can stay healthy for a change and play together before they can hold an advantage over Green Bay's group. Edge Packers
Defensive line
Green Bay's overall line effort as pass rushers is only so-so at 31 1/2 of their 45 sacks, but the run stuffers up front got the job done despite an average group of linebackers. Green Bay needs more than 7 1/2 sacks from Rashan Gary, just like the Bears need more than 5 1/2 from Montez Sweat. The difference had been in what the others contributed and the Packers had a few sacks and pressures coming from many different directions on the line. They haven't made significant improvements in personnel, though, and the Bears have taken a big step forward by adding Grady Jarrett, Dayo Odeyingbo and Shemar Turner, and also getting Andrew Billings back from injury. The lack of quality defensive line depth had been a real Bears issue. No Edge
Linebackers
Although Pro Football Focus rated the Bears linebackers down during the 2024 season, but it was more of a team/scheme thing. Losing Andrew Billings in the run defense left the linebackers exposed and vulnerable in the approach they use because he was usually responsible for the full interior while the 3-technique attacked the B-gap. Both Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards could flourish in the new scheme bent on attacking. The Packers thought they had a big-play linebacker in Quay Walker and have decided to decline his fifth-year option. Maybe it's not the answer. Green Bay's short pass coverage from linebackers was a problem last year. Edgerrin Cooper made a difference for them but they need better pass coverage, a place where Bears linebackers stand out. Edge to Bears
Secondary
The Bears secondary was even better then Green Bay's even though the yardage stats don't say it. They were forced to carry around an inept offense all year and still were right there in coverage with the Packers. A better pass should make Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon the safeties and even Tyrique Stevenson better, and all of them should benefit from being able to cover more in man-to-man. Having Brisker back makes them a better defense than they showed. With Jaire Alexander and Xavier McKinney, the Packers are a close second to the Bears in the division for pass coverage but counting on Nate Hobbs and Keisean Nixon could leave them a bit exposed. No Edge
Special Teams
Green Bay has a wealth of potential returners, including Nixon and Mecole Hardman, as well as Reid, but Devin Duvernay doesn't take a back seat to whoever the Packers put back on returns. Cairo Santos has a solid advantage over Packers kicker Brandon McManus. Santos has 89.9% of field goals made in his five years since returning to the Bears and made 21 of 27 (78%) from 50 or longer. In his last five years, McManus is at 83% and has 62% from 50 yards or longer. He also had the advantage in three of those years kicking in altitude with Denver. Packers kicker Daniel Whelan hasn't displayed the leg strength, hang time, ability to backspin the ball inside the 10 or force fair catches that Tory Taylor has. Other than that they're the same. Edge Bears
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