Don't take this Chargers future bet this season
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston has the ninth-best odds to win Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year, per DraftKings. But the path to the award is littered with potholes for the former TCU star and perhaps for all non-QBs in 2023.
For now, Johnston is buried on the depth chart behind veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The other factor weighing against his candidacy is his position.
In the modern NFL, rookie quarterbacks who lead their teams to the playoffs are shoo-ins to win the award. Ben Roethlisberger with the Steelers in 2004, Matt Ryan with the Falcons in 2008, Robert Griffin III with Washington in 2012 and Dak Prescott with the Cowboys in 2016 earned the honor.
In the case of similar performances, a quarterback — even if he doesn't make the playoffs — gets the edge. Remember Arizona's Kyler Murray over the Raiders' Josh Jacobs in 2019 and the Chargers' Justin Herbert over Minnesota's Justin Jefferson in 2020?
Years in which there was no stellar competition from rookie quarterbacks are the years the non-quarterbacks often win the award. Eddie Lacy (2013), Odell Beckham (2014), Todd Gurley (2015), Alvin Kamara (2017), Saquon Barkley (2018) and Garrett Wilson this past season are prime examples.
This year's rookie class is the main reason why the odds seem especially stacked against Johnston and other non-QBs. There are at least three rookie quarterbacks likely to start this season: Bryce Young (Panthers), C.J. Stroud (Texans) and Anthony Richardson (Colts). Young plays for a team with an established defense and good offensive line in the worst NFL division. DraftKings gives him the second-best OROY odds, behind RB Bijan Robinson of the Falcons.
Ja'Marr Chase's OROY win in 2021 provides the path to the non-quarterback to beat out the quarterback. Chase's main competition was Mac Jones, who led the Patriots to the playoffs as a rookie in 2021 but by no means lit up the stat sheet.
But Chase had a monster year for the Bengals, breaking the record for most receiving yards (1,455) in a season by a rookie wide receiver. His production could not be ignored.
The record Chase broke was set by Minnesota's Justin Jefferson the previous season. Jefferson's team did not make the playoffs. He lost out on the award to Herbert, who threw for 4,336 yards as a rookie and broke the record for most passing touchdowns by a rookie quarterback in a season (31). Tie goes to the quarterback.
Johnston is not Chase. He is, at best, the No. 3 receiver on the Chargers. Spend your hard-earned dollars elsewhere.
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