How Super Bowl-or-bust Bills have failed QB Josh Allen
The Buffalo Bills enter a Super Bowl-or-bust season in 2023. After three straight seasons of disappointing playoff losses following 11-plus win regular seasons, anything less than a Lombardi Trophy is a failure for the Bills.
Based on this offseason, 2023 is looking more like a “bust” for Buffalo because the Bills still haven’t done enough to protect quarterback Josh Allen, who was very good but not great in 2022.
Months ago, Buffalo GM Brandon Beane acknowledged the inordinate number of hits taken by Allen.
Beane did make moves this offseason to remedy this issue. The problem is they may not have been the right moves.
To round out the backfield, Buffalo brought in Damien Harris, the former Patriot, and whatever is left of Latavius Murray, who's 33 and well past his prime. In theory, they'll complement RB James Cook, now in his second year with the team.
Harris had a breakout year in 2021 with New England, rushing for 929 yards and 15 TDs. 2022 saw an oft-injured Harris play in only 11 games and cede the majority of New England’s backfield carries to Rhamondre Stevenson. Regardless, Harris did have a good 2022: he jumped from 40th to 26th in yards after contact per carry, did not turn the ball over and had only a 0.2-yard dip in yards per attempt from 2021.
However, there are two big reasons why Harris won’t be enough to take the load off Allen. One, Harris is already having recurring injury issues after only one season as a lead back and part of a season in a split backfield. Two, Buffalo’s offensive line has a major run-blocking problem.
Buffalo’s projected starting offensive line — which for now doesn't include rookie lineman O'Cyrus Torrence, a second-round pick — has an average Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade of 54.84. That's classified as "below average" by PFF. For context, last year's starting unit averaged 54.90.
The only immediate personnel change was swapping out Rodger Saffold at left guard for former Cowboy Connor McGovern, pending the aforementioned Torrence cracking the starting lineup. That isn't good enough for a unit that also ranked a league-average 16th in ESPN's run-block win rate metric last season.
From a run-blocking standpoint, Buffalo’s highest-ranked projected starter is tackle Dion Dawkins, who has the 105th-highest run-blocking grade in the entire NFL, per PFF.
Even if Harris has excelled in the past from a yards after contact standpoint, there’s the potential for him to take a lot of hits very early in the season. It’s difficult to see Harris holding up long enough to actually be available to take hits away from Allen.
In a division that now features Aaron Rodgers with the Jets, another year of Mike McDaniel’s explosive Miami offense and a Patriots team with an actual offensive coordinator, the Bills failed to do enough to comfortably protect the franchise’s prized asset.
More must-reads: