Jacksonville Jaguars ceiling and floor for 2023

It has been a while since the Jacksonville Jaguars were the unquestioned No. 1 team in the AFC South throughout an entire offseason heading into Week 1. But that's the position they’re in after claiming their second AFC South title and winning a playoff game last season. 

With the other three teams in the division either rebuilding or overhauling their roster, Jacksonville should have no issue repeating as a division champion. Here's our best guess at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Jaguars in 2023: 

Ceiling: 11-6

The Jags won both games against the Titans in 2022 and split with the Colts and Texans early in the season before winning seven of nine down the stretch. So, it’s not crazy to think Jacksonville could sweep the division, especially because Indianapolis and Houston are breaking in rookie quarterbacks. There are six wins without leaving the division.

On paper, Week 4 against Atlanta, Week 16 against Tampa Bay and Week 17 against Carolina should be wins. There are also three more winnable games against New Orleans in Week 7, against Pittsburgh in Week 8 and against Cleveland in Week 14. (Complete schedule analysis here). Wins in four of those six games don't seem to be out of the question.

The Jags also beat three playoff teams in 2022. Assuming all of their 2023 victories aren’t just against teams with .500 or worse record, Jacksonville should be good for at least one upset against any one of Kansas City in Week 2, Buffalo in Week 5, San Francisco in Week 10, Cincinnati in Week 13 and Baltimore in Week 15. That would get the Jags to double-digit wins for the first time since 2007. 

Floor: 5-12

Jacksonville hasn’t had back-to-back winning seasons since 2005. Could 2023 be a repeat of  2018, when the Jags went 5-11 one year after winning the AFC South and making it to the AFC Championship Game? 

After examining their schedule, that's possible. Going 3-3 in the division is very much a realistic possibility, especially if the learning curve is small for rookie quarterbacks Anthony Richardson of the Colts or QB C.J. Stroud of the Texans. 

The Bucs game in late December should be a win considering their offense should take a step back without QB Tom Brady and RB Leonard Fournette. However, games against Atlanta, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Carolina are all toss-ups.