Josh Rosen 2.0: How Dolphins' quarterback can get back on track

Josh Rosen, acquired by Miami from the Arizona Cardinals after a disappointing rookie year, has reportedly fallen behind journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick in the battle to become Dolphins starting quarterback.

Rosen entered the NFL with a lot of promise, prompting Arizona to part with two draft picks to trade up and select him 10^th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. But the former UCLA star's rookie season was far from promising. Rosen posted the worst passer rating in the NFL among qualifiers (66.7) and threw for only 11 touchdowns (with 14 interceptions) and only 163 yards per game over his 14 appearances.

The Cardinals, owning the No. 1 overall pick after a 3-13 season, moved on from Rosen and invested in Kyler Murray as their quarterback of the future. Rosen was traded to Miami, where the 22-year-old can re-start his NFL career. But he must significantly improve in these areas: 

Pocket presence

Rosen came into the NFL with the potential to be an outstanding pocket passer. In a league that has trended heavily toward more mobile quarterbacks who can extend plays and throw on the move, Rosen projected as a Peyton Manning-esque style passer. His bread and butter at UCLA was hanging tight in the pocket and making accurate throws under heavy duress. He flashed good feel for the oncoming pressure and the ability to make subtle adjustments to avoid it and maintain a solid throwing platform.

QUARTERBACKS 2.0

• How Dolphins'  Josh Rosen can get back on track
• Bills' Josh Allen must refine deep-ball passing
• Browns' Baker Mayfield must improve intermediate passing
• Jets' Sam Darnold must play better on road
• Lamar Jackson can improve as deep-ball thrower

In his rookie year with the Cardinals, Rosen failed to display these skills. He was not helped by the league’s worst graded pass-blocking offensive line (via Pro Football Focus), but even independent of his offensive front, Rosen did not showcase great poise in the pocket.

Rosen posted a sack rate of 10.3% in 2018, the fifth-worst mark among qualifiers. Now, at first, you would think this should be expected of a quarterback playing behind a porous line. And that’s partially true.

However, when it comes to individual sack rate, this is a statistic that is largely in the hands of the quarterback. Most players who post high sack rates are mobile quarterbacks who by nature are more susceptible to sacks due to their willingness to extend plays rather than get rid of the football.

Rosen is not a mobile quarterback. On the sack rate leaderboard, he was sandwiched between Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, who ranked seventh and fifth, respectively, in rushing attempts among quarterbacks. You would expect those players to rank highly in sack rate due to their mobility –- in exchange for more playmaking with their legs, they take more sacks. For Rosen, who ranked 32^nd among quarterbacks in rushing attempts, a high sack rate tells you he is taking far too many sacks that he could avoid, and must do a better job of getting the ball out.

Short and intermediate passing

Rosen was actually a solid deep passer in his rookie season. His adjusted completion percentage of 42% on passes travelling 20 yards downfield or more ranked 15^th among qualified quarterbacks.

It was on everything inside of 20 yards where Rosen really struggled. On passes travelling fewer than 20 yards downfield, Rosen completed 201 of 343 passes for 1,783 yards and seven touchdowns (with 12 interceptions). Those numbers accumulate for marks of 5.2 yards per attempt, 2% of passes for touchdowns, 3.5% of passes intercepted and a 64.8 passer rating. All of those numbers are significantly worse than the approximate league averages of seven yards per attempt, 4.8% of passes for touchdowns, 2.1% of passes intercepted, and a 96.5 passer rating on throws under 20 yards downfield.

The Dolphins have speedy receivers who could help Rosen improve his underneath game. Albert Wilson is one of the league’s best after-the-catch receivers. DeVante Parker has struggled to fulfill his potential, but he has intriguing size at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds. Miami also recently signed former Cowboy Allen Hurns, a slot weapon who will be looking to bounce back from a serious injury he suffered last season.

Finding chemistry with these receivers is going to be key for Rosen as he looks to become more consistent on the routine and intermediate throws.

Thriving on later downs

On first downs, Rosen was not that much of a liability, completing 90 of 150 passes for 1,152 yards, four touchdowns (and three interceptions). That culminated in respectable averages of 7.7 yards per attempt and an 84.6 passer rating. He threw for 49 first downs on those passes, moving the chains on 32.7% of his first-down passing attempts. That rate was actually above the league average of 31.7% on first down. In addition, Rosen's yards-per-attempt rate was dead-on with league average.

However, Rosen saw a huge downturn in his efficiency on the next three downs. When throwing on second, third or fourth down, Rosen completed 127 of 241 passes for 1,126 yards, 65 first downs and seven touchdowns (with 11 interceptions). Those totals resulted in an average of 4.7 yards per attempt, a passer rating of 56.1, and a first-down rate of 27%, each mark the worst among qualified passers by a wide margin.

Rosen has a long way to go on his journey to becoming a successful NFL starter. As he looks to beat out Fitzpatrick and prove to the Dolphins he can be their answer, he must become better on later downs.