Josh Allen 2.0: How Buffalo QB can make leap in 2019

Long-starved for a franchise quarterback, the Buffalo Bills put their chips in the middle of the table at the 2018 draft, hoping to find their answer. They traded two second-round selections to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to move up from the 12th selection to the seventh, where they selected  Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen.

Allen was thrust into the starting role in Week 2, after Nathan Peterman flopped, and the results were encouraging. He impressed with his athleticism, leading all quarterbacks with eight rushing touchdowns and an average of 52.6 rushing yards per game. Allen became the first rookie quarterback in league history to lead the league in those categories. 

QUARTERBACKS 2.0

• How Dolphins'  Josh Rosen can get back on track
• Bills' Josh Allen must refine deep-ball passing
• Browns' Baker Mayfield must improve intermediate passing
• Jets' Sam Darnold must play better on road
• Lamar Jackson can improve as deep-ball thrower

While Allen has proved he is dangerous as a ball-carrier, he is not a refined passer. Let's examine areas where he can improve in 2019:

Deep passing

Allen’s arm strength is one of his most tantalizing traits. He flashed it often in 2018, showcasing a lot of potential in the deep game. 

Allen was an extremely aggressive passer as a rookie. His average pass attempt traveled 11 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which led all qualified quarterbacks. In addition, 19.7 percent of his pass attempts traveled at least 20 yards downfield, also tops among qualified passers.

Out of those many deep shots came signs of hope and concern. On the positive side, Allen tossed seven touchdowns on deep throws (attempts traveling 20-plus yards downfield), tied for 13th most in the league despite playing in only 12 games. His average of 0.58 deep touchdowns per game ranked ninth in the league. In total, he averaged 48.3 passing yards per game on deep throws, which ranked a respectable 18th in the league.

On the negative side, Allen struggled with turnovers down the field. He tossed seven interceptions on deep throws, second most in the league behind only Case Keenum, a starter in Denver last season but now a backup in Washington. Since Keenum played four more games, Allen led the league in deep interceptions thrown per game.

Altogether, Allen ranked 29th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating on deep attempts. The potential for Allen to be a great bomber is undoubtedly there, but improving his touch and decision-making in the downfield game will be key. Dialing back his aggressiveness a bit could help him accomplish those goals.

Ball security

This is an area where Allen must significantly improve.

Allen threw 12 interceptions on 320 pass attempts last season, an interception percentage of 3.8 percent. That was the second-worst mark in the league among 33 qualifiers, better than only Ryan Fitzpatrick. Over the past 10 seasons, the only rookies to record a higher interception rate than Allen (minimum 300 pass attempts) were DeShone Kizer, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez.

Allen was much better avoiding interceptions on more shallow throws, as he was picked off on only five passes out of 257 attempts thrown under 20 yards downfield. That’s a solidly low interception rate of 1.9 percent.

Allen can also work on decreasing his fumble frequency. In 2018, he was tagged with eight fumbles. His average of 0.67 fumbles per game was the seventh-highest mark in the league among qualified quarterbacks.

Luckily, Allen lost only two of those eight fumbles. League-wide, about 43 percent of fumbles were lost to the opponent in 2018, meaning Allen was lucky to lose only 25 percent of his. In the future, he could see his luck regress toward the mean. 

Red-zone passing

Allen threw for only 10 touchdowns on his 320 pass attempts last season, a rate of 3.1 percent, which ranked as the fourth lowest among qualified quarterbacks. Of those qualifiers, only Josh Rosen and Marcus Mariota averaged fewer touchdown passes per game than Allen. He had only two games all season with multiple touchdown passes and five games with zero.

While he proved he could throw deep touchdowns, Allen struggled in the red zone. He threw only four touchdown passes from inside the 20, tied for 33rd in the league. Those scores came over 30 pass attempts and sacks inside the red zone. As a result, Allen registered a touchdown pass on only 13.3 percent of his red-zone passing plays, far below the league average of 23.3 percent in 2018 and the worst rate among the 39 quarterbacks with at least 15 red-zone pass attempts last season.

The ground game was a different story. Allen ran for seven touchdowns in the red zone last season, tied with names such as Giants rookie Saquon Barkley and Carolina's Christian McCaffrey for 10th in the entire league.

If his arm can catch up to his legs, Allen could truly become something special.