Baker Mayfield 2.0: Where Browns' second-year QB can improve

Baker Mayfield had a spectacular rookie season, setting a rookie record with 27 passing touchdowns (surpassing Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson) and throwing for 266.1 yards per game, a number bested by only Andrew Luck among rookies (minimum 10 starts).

Mayfield aims to take a mammoth leap in Year 2, one that he hopes will carry a stacked Browns team deep into the playoffs. Let’s examine where Mayfield can improve as he seeks to jump into the elite tier of NFL quarterbacks.

Taking down top defenses

Mayfield took on a relatively easy schedule of  defenses last season. This is best shown by the DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) of the opponents Mayfield faced. DVOA is a stat from Football Outsiders that adjusts production for factors such as score, time, down and distance, in order to capture the true value of each play.

The average defensive DVOA (via Football Outsiders) of Mayfield’s 14 opponents last year was +1.8%, which would be the seventh-easiest slate of  defenses in the league if accumulated by a team.

QUARTERBACKS 2.0

• How Dolphins'  Josh Rosen can get back on track
• Bills' Josh Allen must refine deep-ball passing
• Browns' Baker Mayfield must improve intermediate passing
• Jets' Sam Darnold must play better on road
• Lamar Jackson can improve as deep-ball thrower

Mayfield played five games against bottom-five DVOA defenses (Cincinnati twice, Oakland, Atlanta, Tampa Bay), and overall, eight of his 14 games came against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in defensive DVOA.

In those eight games, Mayfield completed 171 of 245 pass attempts for 2,004 yards for 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Those totals come together for robust numbers of 8.2 yards per attempt and a 112.4 passer rating. The Browns went 5-3 in those games.

In his six games against top-half DVOA defenses (Baltimore twice, Denver, Houston, LA Chargers, Pittsburgh) Mayfield’s production wasn’t nearly the same. He completed 139 of 241 passes for 1,721 yards, 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in those games, culminating in below-average numbers of 7.1 yards per attempt and a 74.7 passer rating. Cleveland struggled in those games, posting a record of 2-4.

As a rookie, Mayfield did a great job exploiting beatable defenses. Few rookies are able to do that with the consistency Mayfield did. However, his matchups with elite defenses left more to be desired. And that’s OK. Those games were experiences that can be learned from. Mayfield should be able to perform much better against top competition now that he has some seasoning. Playing in the tough AFC North should only accelerate his development as a quarterback who can beat elite teams.

Intermediate passing

Mayfield was one of the league’s better quarterbacks at throwing to most parts of the field. On passes that traveled 0-9 yards downfield, Mayfield posted an adjusted completion percentage (via Pro Football Focus) of 72.5%, fourth among all qualifiers. He was also an elite deep-ball thrower. On passes that traveled 20+ yards downfield, Mayfield had an adjusted completion percentage of 50.8%, third in the league.

It was in the intermediate range where Mayfield struggled. Mayfield’s production on throws 10-19 yards downfield was below average. On pass attempts in that range, Mayfield completed 59 of 120 throws for 987 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions. Those numbers placed Mayfield below all of the league average metrics in that range — completion percentage (49% vs. 56%), yards per attempt (8.2 vs. 9.8), touchdown percentage (3.3% vs. 5.2%), interception percentage (5.0% vs. 3.7%), and passer rating (67.6 vs. 92.0).

The addition of Odell Beckham Jr. should help Mayfield tremendously in this area. Intermediate playmaking is one of Beckham Jr.’s many great strengths. The sharpness of his route running is incredible, and it’s on those intermediate routes, such as crossers, digs and outs, where those skills really shine.

Cleveland couldn’t have added a better weapon to help Mayfield improve his intermediate passing. It’s up to the former Heisman Trophy winner to take advantage.

Getting it down on road

In 2018, Mayfield posted a 98.6 passer rating at home, with the Browns going 5-2 in those games. On the road, Mayfield had a passer rating of 89.2, with the Browns going 2-5. His 10 interceptions on the road tied for the league lead.

It’s normal for players to produce better at home than on the road -– Mayfield shouldn’t be knocked for that. In 2018, the average passer rating recorded on throws at home was 95.0. On the road, the league average passer rating dipped to 90.9.

Mayfield needs to do what top quarterbacks do -– strike a solid balance between home and road performance, both in terms of personal production and winning percentage.

Handling high volume

From a box-score production standpoint, Mayfield was at his best when the Browns relied on him the least.

In his four games with fewer than 30 pass attempts, Mayfield completed 71 of 91 passes for 913 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. That’s 10 yards per attempt and a 138.8 passer rating.

When Mayfield took on a bigger load, his efficiency dipped. In his six games with 40 pass attempts or more, Mayfield completed 149 of 257 passes for 1,945 yards, 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, resulting in rates of 7.6 yards per attempt and a 75.5 passer rating. Improving his efficiency in high-volume games will be key for Mayfield in 2019.

Rushing production

Mayfield has never been known for his wheels, but the ground game is definitely a facet of his skillset he can expand. He ran for only eight rushing first downs in 2018, 28th among quarterbacks.

Mayfield is never going to be a big-time runner, nor should he want to be, but adding in his legs as another threat that demands respect can only make him more dangerous.