NFC, AFC championships: Player prop betting guide

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 1/25/23

For the last time this year, we have multiple games in the NFL, and we're celebrating by digging into each team's defensive trends to find player prop spots worth targeting. The stats you see are the same as last week, given most teams are no longer playing, moving a defense up or down slightly in the ranks based on last week felt counterintuitive to what we're trying to accomplish here.

The defensive stats you see are what we've seen all season long, and it's what we'd feel best targeting this weekend.

San Francisco at Philadelphia

49ers defensive stats to know

3rd-most passing yards allowed per game last 10 games
5th-most yards allowed per game to WRs this season
7th-most receptions allowed per game to WRs

Eagles who can take advantage

Jalen Hurts

259 passing yards/game over his last five
30.3 pass attempts/game this season

DeVonta Smith

81.5 yards/game over the last 10 (96.4 yards/game over the last five)
9.3 targets/game over the last 10 (10.2 targets/game over the last five)
6.1 receptions/game over the last 10 (7.0 receptions/game over the last five)

AJ Brown

84.3 yards/game this season (99.6 yards/game over the last five)
8.4 targets/game this season (9.8 targets/game over the last five)
5.1 receptions/game this season (5.2 receptions/game over the last five)

Eagles defensive stats to know

4th-most rushing yards allowed per game to QBs

49ers who can take advantage

Brock Purdy

6.8 rushing yards/game over the last five games
10.3 rushing yards/game over the last three games

Griffin's recommendation: DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown receptions and yards

Cincinnati at Kansas City

Bengals defensive stats to know

5th-most passing yards allowed per game last 10 games
7th-most yards allowed per game to TEs this season
5th-most receptions allowed per game to TEs

Chiefs who can take advantage

Patrick Mahomes

302.5 passing yards/game this season
252.3 passing yards/game in last three games vs. Cincinnati
37.7 pass attempts/game this season

Travis Kelce

79.8 receiving yards/game this season
8.6 receptions/game over the last five
9.4 targets/game this season (10.4 targets/game over the last five)
58.7 receiving yards/game in last three vs. Cincinnati
6.3 receptions/game in last three vs. Cincinnati

Chiefs defensive stats to know

9th-most receptions allowed per game to WRs this season
2nd-most touchdowns allowed to WRs
5th-most rushing yards allowed per game to QBs

Bengals who can take advantage

Ja'Marr Chase

7.6 receptions/game over the last 10
11.3 targets/game over the last 10
11 touchdowns this year
8.0 receptions/game, 139 yards/game, four touchdowns last three games vs. Kansas City

Tee Higgins

4.7 receptions/game over the last 10
6.9 targets/game over the last 10
Seven touchdowns this year
4.0 receptions/game, 66.7 yards/game, one touchdown last three games vs. Kansas City

Tyler Boyd

3.4 receptions/game this season
4.4 targets/game over the last 10
Five touchdowns this year
4.0 receptions/game, 38.3 yards/game, one touchdown last three games vs. Kansas City

Joe Burrow

16.5 rushing yards/game this season
27 rushing yards/game in last three games vs. Kansas City, including 46 yards earlier this year

Griffin's recommendation: Travis Kelce and Ja'Marr Chase yards and receptions

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