NFL best bets: Trends and takes for Sunday's NFC and AFC Championships
There's no denying we have quality games coming in the NFL. The four teams left are four of the five best teams from this season, and this feels like a satisfying penultimate weekend for this season.
We'll be gearing up for the matchups all week long here at Yardbarker, and our work begins by looking at each team's betting trends for the season, where the lines have opened, and our initial read of the situation.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Betting trends
San Francisco: 13-6 ATS, 10-9 overs
Philadelphia: 9-9 ATS, 10-8 overs
This game
Spread: Philadelphia -2.5
Over/under: 46.5 points
Initial takes
These are most definitely the two best teams in the NFC, and we're getting the NFC Championship Game we deserve seeing these two complete teams match up. For San Francisco, this is the Niners' third Conference Championship game in four years, and it's Philly's first since winning the Super Bowl in 2018.
The 49ers squeaked by the Cowboys in an ugly Divisional Round game, while the Eagles spanked the Giants on Saturday night, 38-7. Philadelphia appears to be as healthy as they've ever been, with all 22 starters from the beginning of the season expected to play this coming weekend, a rarity for this time of the year.
Tack on an extra day's rest, playing at home, and rookie Brock Purdy making his first road playoff start, and the edge in our minds favors the Eagles. Both teams have been some of the best towards the over this season, so if you trust trends there, the over at 46.5 may be the play, up from 45.5 earlier this week.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Betting trends
Cincinnati: 13-5 ATS, 7-10-1 overs
Kansas City: 6-11-1 ATS, 8-10 overs
This game
Spread: Cincinnati -1
Over/under: 47 points
Initial takes
Much will depend here on the health of Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week's win over Jacksonville. All reports suggest Mahomes will be practicing this week and playing on Sunday, but the spread favoring the Bengals goes to show the hesitation both books and the public have towards the effectiveness of Mahomes.
In our eyes, Mahomes on one leg is still an upper-half of the league starter, but the presumptive MVP being hampered with an injury is no small thing. Cincinnati has beaten Kansas City three straight times with Joe Burrow at quarterback, including the AFC Championship Game last year at Arrowhead.
The Bengals are the second-best team in the NFL ATS, while the Chiefs own the third-worst spread betting record. Our initial read of the situation is to back the Bengals advancing to their second-straight Super Bowl.
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