NFL Divisional Round prop bets: Bengals vs. Titans
The first AFC game of the Divisional Round will be the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans, with kickoff set for 4:30 p.m. EST on Saturday.
All four games offer intriguing prop betting value, so we'll be digging into all of them here at Yardbarker.
For an additional betting view on the game, check out Matt Wiesenfeld's best bets for this game.
Bengals vs Titans
The Titans are well-rested, owners of the AFC's top seed and bye week, while the Bengals are coming off a Wild Card win that signifies the next chapter for this franchise.
Cincinnati winning a playoff game a year after owning the top pick is a tremendous story, and Joe Burrow looks to be the real deal, aided by his loaded receiver room.
It's there we'll start for a prop, targeting this Tennessee defense.
How to Target Tennessee
From an efficiency standpoint, the Titans run defense is a strength, allowing just 3.9 yards per rush attempt, the fourth-best mark in the NFL.
Tennessee has been smothering against running back production, allowing just 64.06 yards per game to backs, the second-lowest total in the league.
That trend explains why the Titans are seeing the fourth-most passes against them this season, which gives us the volume we need to confidently bet a Bengals passing prop.
Cincy has run the football at a pretty high rate for much of the year, but have turned it on with the passing game of late. Joe Burrow has averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game in the Bengals last three.
The issue we face with betting on an offense like Cincinnati's is the breadth of options. This WR trio of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd has a case for the most talented group in the league. How do we pick the right one?
Maybe we don't need to.
Joe Burrow over 275.5 passing yards (-115 on DraftKings)
You can make a case that any of the Bengals receivers are worth a bet this weekend. As mentioned, Tennessee lets up the second-most receiving yards per game to the position, and all three of their corners seem to grade out below-average on PFF.
In such a situation, our attention turns to who throws them the ball. Why try to peg down which receiver will have a big game when you can just bet on the entire offense moving the ball through the air?
I'm a big Joe Burrow fan, and like this number for him quite a bit.
Burrow has thrown for over 275.5 in four of his last six games. You may recall how Burrow ended the regular season, going for 525 and 446 yards in back-to-back games. It should be quite clear that he's capable of hitting this total.
Burrow went under last week, which I think we can partially attribute to his opponent. The Raiders have struggled against running backs, and the Bengals ran the ball 25 times, compared to 34 passes.
With a more stout run defense on deck, expect a return to the air for an offense that has shown how explosive it can be.
Tennessee's secondary has been vulnerable to chunk plays, seeing the sixth-most passes of 20+ yards against them.
Only three teams have more 20+ yard passing plays than the Bengals offense, which suggests big plays galore for Burrow and company.
This bet also feels somewhat game-script proof. If the Bengals win, it's likely going to be because of their passing offense. If they go down to Tennessee, they'll be forced to pass even more.
If you don't want to bet Burrow's yards but agree with our read of the game, here are a few alternative bets:
- Burrow's long completion over 38.5 yards
- Ja'Marr Chase over 76.5 receiving yards
Enjoy the weekend, and be sure to check out my favorite prop bet for the Bills-Chiefs game.
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