NFL Divisional-round weekend grades

A week after Taylor Heinicke interfered during a quality Tom Brady performance, the Tampa Bay defense gave TB12 support when he needed it Sunday. With neither Hall of Fame-bound quarterback thriving, the 13-5 Buccaneers' four forced turnovers swung the NFC South divisional-round game. White, who missed Round 1 after contracting COVID-19, hovered around the ball -- per usual -- with 11 tackles, a fumble recovery, and an INT that all but sealed the Bucs' win. Pro Football Focus has been oddly skeptical of White's work, rating him 76th out of 88 linebackers this season, despite breakout stats. Discounting his role Sunday was tough.

BUCCANEERS GRADE: A-minus | NEXT: at Packers (Sun.)

After three straight vicious playoff exits , the Saints (14-4) endured a less dramatic defeat thanks to their on-the-way-out quarterback's struggles. Sean Payton and GM Mickey Loomis rebuilt the Saints defense over the past four years, and the unit covered for Drew Brees as long as possible Sunday. But the 42-year-old QB threw three INTs and again struggled in downfield passing. Brees' yards-per-attempt figure (3.9) was his second-worst in 246 Saints games. The 19-year veteran is the defining player in Saints history and carried numerous New Orleans squads, but he played the lead role in this one's demise and will -- fairly or not -- be docked for playoff shortcomings.

SAINTS GRADE: C-minus 

Tampa Bay crushed Green Bay 38-10 in Week 6, boding well for the Bucs' Super Bowl-at-home chances. But tides have often turned in these scenarios. In the free agency era (1993-present), nine conference championship games pitted teams whose one regular-season matchup ended with a 14-plus-point margin. While the 2019 Packers are part of this group -- having lost 37-8 and 37-20 to the 49ers -- the teams that prevailed in the first meeting are only 5-4 in rematches. Two Tom Brady teams -- the 2004 Patriots, who reversed a two-TD loss to the Steelers, and their 2014 squad that routed the Colts twice -- factored into this. 

After woeful defenses kept Brees out of three straight playoff fields in the mid-2010s, the Saints both drafted well and stockpiled veterans to maximize their Hall of Fame-bound passer's final seasons. Four straight stacked Saints teams came up short, and the bill is due. While Loomis frequently skirts cap issues, the Saints are entering a new genre of financial concern. OverTheCap.com projects the Saints to be an incomprehensible $95 million over a 2021 cap expected to drop due to the pandemic. With the Saints uncertain at quarterback and their expensive roster requiring radical adjustments, this might have been an era's last stand.

Brady chose the Bucs over the Chargers but was also connected to the Titans, 49ers, and Raiders. They of three prior NFC title games in a 44-season history, a stuck Bucs franchise gambled Brady could remain an upper-echelon quarterback at 43. Brady will play in his 14th conference championship game -- only seven more than second-place all-time (Joe Montana) -- and will join Montana, Jay Schroeder, and Craig Morton in starting at QB in an AFC and NFC title game. The Bucs gave Brady a good situation, and he became the catalyst that ended the franchise's near-20-year championship-round drought.

Although Rashard Higgins' fumble -- 33 years to the day of Earnest Byner's -- created another painful Browns playoff image, some second-half decisions cost the team as well. Kevin Stefanski burned two timeouts before crunch time -- the second on an unwinnable challenge -- and bypassed a chance to create a one-score deficit by eschewing a third-quarter two-point try. The Browns (12-6) passed on a winnable challenge that would have forced a Chiefs third-and-long then completed the longest playoff drive in 13 years (18 plays), despite trailing 22-10 in the fourth stanza. Cleveland's fourth-and-9 punt to a Chad Henne-led offense was defensible, but game-management issues played a major role in this loss.

BROWNS GRADE: C-plus 

While the 2019 Chiefs may have won Super Bowl LIV regardless of playoff seed, they needed Matt Moore to beat the Vikings to earn a bye. An ex-Moore Miami teammate delivered a memorable QB2 encore. Chad Henne had not taken meaningful snaps since Blake Bortles supplanted him in Jacksonville in 2014, but the 35-year-old Kansas City backup prevented arguably the best team in Chiefs history from ending its season early. Although Henne threw a bad INT, a game-changing 13-yard scramble on third-and-14 will likely become the 13th-year player's signature moment. This will be Henne's fourth straight season on an AFC championship game-bound team.

CHIEFS GRADE: B | NEXT: vs. Bills (Sun.)

The Browns have every offensive starter under contract for 2021. They employ a top-tier offensive line, two Pro Bowl running backs, and (for now) Odell Beckham Jr. But Cleveland's defense being unable to stop Henne was only the latest example of its unreliability. The Browns made the playoffs with a negative point differential and can blame its No. 25 DVOA defense for it. Although Greedy Williams and Grant Delpit in return in the secondary, Cleveland needs more help here and front-seven upgrades alongside Myles Garrett. But with the offense set, the Browns should be able to devote most resources to their defense.

In every other NFL era, Mahomes' status for an AFC championship game following a concussion would probably not be in doubt. But the league's rightfully beefed-up concussion protocol clouds the former MVP's chances of playing again this season. Mahomes must be cleared by Chiefs doctors and an independent neurologist and must navigate a five-step process -- rest, light aerobics, ramped-up workouts, non-contact practice work, and full practice -- to return next week. The NFL is set for the highest-profile case in the protocol era.

The Chiefs will become the first team to host three straight AFC championship games. This has only happened once in the NFC -- Reid's 2002-04 Eagles, who were amid a run of four straight NFC title games. (The Dolphins from 1971-73 would have hosted three straight AFC title games, having the better record in each of those matchups, but the NFL did not base playoff home games on record at that point.) Reid is 2-5 in conference championship contests, losing to the Cardinals in 2008 as well, but is a cinch Hall of Famer. The Chiefs had not only never hosted an AFC title game pre-Reid; they had never won back-to-back AFC West crowns prior to 2017.

Lamar Jackson is now eligible for a monster extension, and Deshaun Watson set a new market last summer. The Ravens (12-6) are now 1-3 in playoff games during Jackson's advantageous rookie contract. Even on a windy night that favored Baltimore's run-game brilliance over Buffalo's aerial-based offense, the Ravens put up three points despite voyaging into the Bills red zone three times. Jackson's game-defining INT was his first red-zone pick as a pro, and he did not play in the fourth quarter due to a concussion. This is three double-digit playoff losses for the superstar quarterback, who will face another offseason of scrutiny.

RAVENS GRADE: C-minus

Overshadowed by Taron Johnson's INT return, the Bills (15-3) stopped a Ravens run game that had amassed more yards in a six-game span than any team since the 1940s from taking over. Buffalo's defense, which gave up nearly 500 yards to Indianapolis, held Jackson to 34 rushing yards and allowed neither Gus Edwards nor J.K. Dobbins to surpass 45. Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier devised a strong game plan that was effective against the run and pass, with a blitz-happy approach disrupting the reigning MVP by registering pressure on 37% of Raven dropbacks. The Bills defense returning to its 2019 form now is certainly key given the next opponent.

BILLS GRADE: A-minus | NEXT: at Chiefs (Sun.)

The Ravens could use some O-line help and again have a glaring need on its defensive edge, with both Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue free agents. But Baltimore must bring in another starting-caliber wide receiver. While the Ravens stand to benefit from what could be a buyer's market in free agency at this position, finding proven wideouts willing to join this extreme run-based attack may not be easy. With Marquise Brown inconsistent (one argument) and/or constrained by Jackson (the other), the Ravens need a possession target to take attention off Mark Andrews. How they attempt to acquire one will be a key offseason storyline. 

Against a Chiefs team lacking the cornerback talent compared to the Ravens, the Bills have an interesting opportunity. Kansas City's defense ranked 22nd in DVOA and also allowed Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to exceed five yards per carry Sunday. Steve Spagnuolo's unit, however, limited the Bills to a season-low (by far) 206 yards in the teams' October meeting. Offering a high-floor and high-ceiling passing game, the streaking Bills are in a better place than they were then. While giving Devin Singletary more than seven carries seems wise, OC Brian Daboll -- now on the verge of returning next season -- has intriguing options entering a possible shootout.

The Bills' 17-year playoff drought from 2000-16 is tied for the second-longest since the 1970 merger -- behind only the Saints (1967-86). The Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Packers have each made at least three conference championship games since the Bills' most recent one -- a 30-13 win over the Joe Montana-led Chiefs 27 years ago. McDermott and GM Brandon Beane revived a small-market franchise, with the former assembling one of the NFL's best defensive nuclei and the latter pulling off two trades to move up for Josh Allen in 2018. Though only the Bills and Vikings are 0-4 in Super Bowls, the Chiefs' top dynasty obstacle has emerged.

Epitomized by Aaron Donald yanking Elgton Jenkins' facemask and Jalen Ramsey furious after Davante Adams' touchdown, the Rams' defensive superstars could not take over a second straight playoff game. Aaron Rodgers targeted Ramsey six times, and the All-Pro cornerback allowed six catches for 55 yards and a TD. Limited by trying to play through a painful rib injury, Donald was nearly shut out of the box score in Green Bay's 484-yard day. No No. 1-ranked defense has allowed more yards in a playoff game since the merger, and the Rams (11-7) will have yet another new system to learn next season after the Chargers poached DC Brandon Staley.

RAMS GRADE: C 

Rodgers' early-2010s takeover produced his Super Bowl win and a 15-1 season. The 2014 MVP season may have been his apex. At 37, the all-time great carved up a Rams defense despite lacking the pass-catching depth his younger versions enjoyed. Rodgers picked on Troy Hill, who allowed 96 of the QB's 296 yards, and was a play-action maestro against the toughest defense on the 14-3 Packers' schedule. Inconsistent targets Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are a cut below the younger Rodgers version's support staffers, but Lazard's 58-yard clincher illustrated his quarterback is operating on perhaps his own tier entering Round 3.

PACKERS GRADE: A-minus | NEXT: vs. Buccaneers (Sun.)

The 2020 Rams carried more than $30 million in dead money from the jettisoned Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks contracts. GM Les Snead made a similar signing error with Jared Goff, whose cap-crippling contract -- which ties him to L.A. through at least 2022 -- will look worse in a year when the NFL's salary ceiling will undergo a COVID-19-induced drop. Sean McVay was noncommittal on Goff this weekend, but the Rams are stuck with a player who will keep restricting their coach's abilities. The Rams are projected to be $20M-plus over the 2021 cap, which may force them to lose key role players for a third straight offseason. 

In addition to the Buccaneers sacking Rodgers four times and notching 14 QB hits in their Week 6 rout, Packers running backs were nonfactors. Green Bay is now down Pro Bowl left tackle David Bakhtiari but has effectively replaced him with Billy Turner, a hybrid blocker who has played much better than he did in 2019. The Packers compiled 188 rushing yards against the Rams' third-ranked run defense and have given up just one sack -- in games involving Donald and Khalil Mack -- in their two Bakhtiari-less tests. With Aaron Jones still unsigned beyond this season, Sunday provides the backdrop for a multipronged statement game for Packer cogs.

Rodgers is more talented than Brady, but like everyone else, trails the current Bucs QB in playoff achievements. Rodgers, however, will be home in an NFC title game for the first time and may have a slightly better team. He is 1-0 against Brady at Lambeau Field. (In a bad look for the NFL's schedule format, this will only be the QBs' fourth meeting.) This provides a rare opportunity for a 16th-year passer to add a premier legacy point: going 1-0 against the era's defining player in the postseason. While Brady's Patriot teams provided unrivaled insurance, many past Packers squads let Rodgers down. A win would offer a key career amendment for the one-ring passer.