NFL futures bets: Most passing yards in 2023 season
OTAs are underway in the NFL, but we have quite a ways to go before the 2023 regular season kicks off. We've been spending this time maneuvering through the various futures markets available to us, and we have a few new options now offered: most yards (passing, rushing and receiving).
Let's explore how we can bet on who will lead the NFL in passing yards this coming season.
Favorites for most passing yards in 2023
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
- Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City (+550)
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati (+600)
- Justin Herbert, LA Chargers (+700)
- Kirk Cousins, Minnesota (+1000)
- Josh Allen, Buffalo (+1000)
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami (+1200)
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville (+1400)
- Jared Goff, Detroit (+1600)
- Dak Prescott, Dallas (+1800)
- Derek Carr, New Orleans (+2000)
Patrick Mahomes is the understandable favorite in this market ahead of the new season. Mahomes led the league last season with 5,250 yards, the fourth time in the past five seasons that the Chiefs QB has been inside the top five.
Justin Herbert is one worth keeping an eye on. In his rookie season, Herbert finished sixth in the NFL with 4,336 yards. He's been second in each of the past two seasons, tossing 5,014 yards in 2021 and finishing with 4,739 last year.
Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow have all been inside the top 10 of most passing yards in each of the past two seasons and remain in place on an offense that prioritizes the passing game.
Two bets in this market
Justin Herbert: +700
Herbert has been oh-so-close in this market, as we mentioned above. The runner-up for most passing yards in two straight seasons, 2023 seems like a terrific opportunity for the Chargers passer to get over the hump and top the league in yards.
The Chargers were second to the Buccaneers last season for highest percentage of pass plays called, and that figures to remain their philosophy heading into the new season.
Los Angeles added to the wide receiver room in the first round of the 2023 draft, selecting TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston, a 6-foot-4 speedster who can be a dangerous weapon down the field and with the ball in his hands.
Johnston joins a group that already has Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer and Jalen Guyton, plus Gerald Everett and Austin Ekeler, the latter of whom is one of the best pass-catching backs in football.
If Herbert's weapons can all stay healthy, this Chargers offense will be lethal through the air, making the Los Angeles quarterback our favorite choice to lead the NFL in passing yards next season.
Aaron Rodgers: +2200
Rodgers isn't inside the top 10, but who doesn't love a value play? The precedent has been set that to win this market, you likely need to surpass 5,000 passing yards, and in that respect, Rodgers has some ground to cover, as his previous season-high was 4,653 back in 2011.
There's reason to like the value on Rodgers, however. The Jets brought the former MVP into the fold for one reason: milk every ounce of football he has left in a bid to win the Super Bowl.
It feels very reminiscent of Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, who averaged 4,881 passing yards per season in his three years with the Buccaneers.
The Jets already have a prevalence for passing in their offensive game plan that suggest the volume necessary for Rodgers to have a huge statistical season is realistic.
Last season, New York was sixth in the NFL in passing attempts, and they were fourth in passing play percentage, throwing the football on 62.3% of their offensive plays. With that structure here, and talented pass catchers aiding a big Rodgers year, this is a bet we like.
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