NFL player prop: Lil’ somethin’ for Christmas

Over Bill Belichick’s two-plus decades with the Patriots, winter visits to Denver had always held major significance. His team dominated the Tim Tebow–led Broncos there in the 2011 postseason but subsequently lost both the 2013 and 2015 AFC Championship Games to Peyton Manning. This time around, as the coach with the most Super Bowl wins confronts the reality of a 3-11 squad and his imminent departure from New England, a player with connections to both sides gets our backing for top prop:

The bet: Over 10½ receiving yards for Broncos wide receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey (BetMGM)

Undrafted after a 1,200-yard, 10-touchdown season as a junior at Texas, Humphrey hooked on with the Saints and eventually set modest career highs in 2021 with 13 receptions for 249 yards. Still, he gained 19.2 yards per catch that season and has averaged better than 14 over his five-year career.

Even some diehard fans might not remember that Humphrey was on the Patriots last season. He appeared in the first six games but caught just two passes for 20 yards. Fringe players like him tend to have a chip on their shoulder, so Humphrey likely wants to exact some revenge for being released midseason.

With his former New Orleans coach, Sean Payton, calling the shots, Humphrey has started three of the last four games for Denver and cleared this number in all of them. Payton and Belichick both happen to be from the coaching tree of two-time Super Bowl champion Bill Parcells, which adds another competitive layer to this matchup.

The smart money says Humphrey gets schemed open for a big play against his old team.