NFL player prop: MVP stays grounded

When the Ravens hosted the Texans on the opening Sunday of the NFL season, few in attendance could’ve envisioned a playoff rematch. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud, the second overall pick, failed to lead any touchdown drives in his debut, and Baltimore rolled to a 25-9 victory on the strength of three rushing scores. But with M&T Bank Stadium again the setting as these teams square off in the divisional round, the game’s biggest name draws our backing for top prop:

The bet: Under 228½ passing yards for Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (DraftKings)

Although he’s expected to earn league MVP honors for a second time, Jackson poses a greater threat as a runner and doesn’t often post eye-popping passing yardage. He threw for just 169 yards in that first matchup and has stayed under this number in nine of his 16 games this season.

The line on this prop essentially reflects Jackson’s per-game average, but there are a number of reasons to believe he falls short of it. The primary one is a cold-weather forecast, which calls for a steady wind and gusts exceeding 30 miles per hour. It would be more advantageous to attack Houston on the ground like the Colts did in the regular-season finale, when Jonathan Taylor was fed 30 carries and gained 188 yards.

The Texans have also been getting improved play in the secondary, especially from second-year cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. Last week, he shadowed Browns star wideout Amari Cooper on 35 of 42 routes and limited him to a single catch for minus-6 yards. Similar coverage may await Zay Flowers.

Since Jackson has stayed below 200 passing yards in three of his previous four playoff games, an under bet in blustery conditions seems warranted.