NFL player prop: Poetic Justice

Having shown that he could win a playoff game in the hostile road environment of Buffalo, Patrick Mahomes looks to prove that he can best a fellow league MVP. Two of his three postseason losses have come against teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady — who earned the award three times — and now Mahomes opposes a soon-to-be two-time recipient in Lamar Jackson. As the Chiefs try to reach their fourth Super Bowl in five years, it’s a playmaker on the Ravens who gets our support for top prop:

The bet: Over 12½ receiving yards for Ravens running back Justice Hill (ESPN)

Although he’s played for Baltimore since being a fourth-round pick in 2019, Hill has often found himself behind others on the depth chart. In fact, he might have a minimal playoff role if not for the season-ending injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell.

But even with the addition of former Vikings star Dalvin Cook, Hill was the team’s primary back in the victory over the Texans. He played the most snaps (39) and handled the most touches (15). Although he managed just 11 receiving yards, that was partly attributable to the windy weather that helped deliver our under bet on Jackson.

Hill was a highly productive pass-catcher in each of the three games prior, posting sequential totals of 31, 64 and 26 yards. And now he faces a Chiefs defense that just allowed this number to be eclipsed by all three of the Bills’ running backs.

Getting most of the passing-down work in what could be a back-and-forth affair, Hill figures to keep rolling.