NFL 'TNF' player prop: Hunter’s instinct

Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit must’ve been thrilled to call a shootout last Thursday, when the Cowboys and Seahawks combined for 76 points. But Prime Video’s streak of high-scoring games likely ends at one because this matchup between the Patriots and Steelers carries an absurdly low total of 30. As backup quarterbacks Bailey Zappe and Mitchell Trubisky try to generate something resembling offensive production, we like a prime-time veteran for our top prop:

The bet: Over 21½ receiving yards for Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (FanDuel)

New England last played a Thursday night game almost exactly a year ago, and Henry delivered for us by posting a season-best 70 yards in a win over Arizona. That outing came with Mac Jones under center, but he has shown a similar rapport with his other quarterback.

Over Zappe’s two starts in October 2022, Henry saw a team-high 12 targets. He caught four passes in each game and finished with totals of 54 and 61 yards. Although he managed only two receptions for 15 yards last week, rainy conditions limited Zappe to 25 attempts and an easy 14-yarder fell incomplete because of an errant throw.

The Steelers rank 19th in pass defense on both a per-play and per-game basis. They’ve been especially vulnerable to tight ends, allowing more than double this total to the Jaguars’ Evan Engram (88), the Ravens’ Mark Andrews (65), the Packers’ Luke Musgrave (64) and the Browns’ David Njoku (56). Then Trey McBride of the Cardinals topped them all with 89 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

As one of the few healthy weapons for the Patriots, Henry should come through once again.