GAME OF THE WEEK
After a rough Week 15 in which the Jets returned to their offensive ineptitude and cost us our juicy three-leg parlay, we'll forge a couple of more conventional plays.
Two trends to fight have emerged: The Lions' split personalities and the Cowboys' inability to beat a good team.
See how the primary play developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.
THE HEADLINER
Lions at Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The line: Lions -3, total 47 (DraftKings).
Detroit's home-road splits are enlightening — beware of the Lions away from home.
The feeling is that the bookmakers have over-adjusted for this divisional battle against the Vikings, and Lions QB Jared Goff can successfully imagine that this covered stadium bears a strong resemblance to his cozy home field.
Detroit's most recent road game resulted in a 28-13 loss to Chicago Dec. 10, but, in keeping with home-road tradition, the Lions rolled to a 42-17 rout of the Denver Broncos last Saturday night in which Goff tied his career high with five touchdown passes.
Back on the road again, the increased productivity of receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and the continued emergence of go-to target Sam LaPorta — a rookie tight end — should mean more options for Goff and another big offensive day.
A field goal is too small a margin for a team ready to clinch its first division title since Rodney Peete, Andre Ware and Erik Kramer were the starting quarterbacks (1993!).
Against the Broncos, St. Brown caught seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown and LaPorta caught three of Goff's touchdown passes.
As an explosive complement to the passing game, rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and veteran David Montgomery combined for 185 rushing yards and a touchdown.
This bet hinges on Goff's ability to feel at home in Minnesota.
"The most important thing is to cut it loose. That's the message," Lions coach Dan Campbell said. "It's not the other way because I go back to this: He's one of the biggest reasons we're sitting at 10 wins right now, him playing loose.
"Just trust what your eyes see, play the progression and throw with conviction."
It's easier said than done, this "trust" thing with Goff, but we'll take a shot and hope he's better than Minnesota starting QB Nick Mullens.
The bet: Lions -3.
BONUS PLAY
Cowboys at Dolphins, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The line: Dolphins -1, total 50 (DraftKings).
Here's another selection that we're tying to a team's mental abilities.
Can Dallas muster the urgency and execution to win a very, very important game on the road?
The Cowboys (10-4) are perfect in seven home games. But when they leave Dallas ...
Quarterback Dak Prescott is perplexed by the difference in play.
"Obviously, we'd love to come out and produce like we do at home but that just hasn't been the case," he said.
"So we've got to find out what those answers are and try to close that gap and we can't be those two different other teams."
We hear you, Dak.
This bet boils down to the Cowboys needing this win more.
A loss in Miami likely means a road playoff game at the NFC South winner for the Cowboys. If Dallas wins that game, a visit to San Francisco to meet the 49ers awaits.
That's no recipe for a Super Bowl.
Miami can still grab the AFC East title, even with a loss to the Cowboys, so we are going to side with the more desperate team.
The play: Cowboys +1.
PROP CORNER
This is a prediction predicated on that Dallas desperation.
The defense will have its intensity ramped up and should be aiming to chase down Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. If that's successful, there should be pressure-induced dump-offs in addition to the designed screen passes to the running backs.
The Dolphins employ Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. Achane has been trending the right way (11 receptions over the past three games, during which he's reached at least 24 receiving yards in each of those games) and is back healthy.
That trend, plus the likely Dallas game plan, leads us to an Achane "over" bet.
Prop play: Miami running back Devon Achane over 24.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel).
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