NFL Week 2 best bets: Profitable trends point to two winning wagers

Welcome to overreaction week in the NFL, when oddsmakers and bettors alike put too much stock into what they saw in Week 1. The teams that looked unbeatable in their first game of the season are consistently overvalued in Week 2, just as the teams that looked inept are always undervalued. 

Remember, this is the NFL. The worst team in the league can beat the best team in the league on any given week. No team is as good or as bad as they looked the week before. If you can stick to that golden rule and keep yourself from overreacting to Week 1 performances, there's an opportunity to make a ton of money in Week 2. 

Let's start with the teams that looked the worst in Week 1. According to John Ewing of BetMGM, teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 are 51-33-3 (61 percent) against the spread in Week 2 dating back to 2010. Here are the eight teams that lost by 10 or more points last week and their matchups for Week 2:

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5 at Detroit Lions)
Cincinnati Bengals (-3 vs. Baltimore Ravens)
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5 at Houston Texans)
Houston Texans (+1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Chicago Bears (+3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
New York Giants (-5.5 at Arizona Cardinals)
Carolina Panthers (+3 vs. New Orleans Saints)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2 vs. Cleveland Browns)
Colts-Texans gets canceled out.

Alright, let's keep that list in mind. And how about the teams that looked the best? Since 2010, teams that won by double digits in Week 1 have gone 35-51-1 (41 percent) ATS in Week 2, per Ewing.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5 at Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta Falcons (+1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers)
Baltimore Ravens (+3 at Cincinnati Bengals)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
San Francisco 49ers (-8 at Los Angeles Rams)
Los Angeles Rams (+8 vs. San Francisco 49ers)
Dallas Cowboys (-9.5 vs. New York Jets)
Cleveland Browns (-2 at Pittsburgh Steelers)
Packers-Falcons and 49ers-Rams get canceled out.

Now, you could blindly ride both of these trends if you want, and I'm not going to stop you. But there are two teams that fit both trends in Week 2 (lost by double digits in Week 1 and playing a team that won by double digits), and they're both playing divisional opponents on their home field in Week 2. That's where I'm putting my money this week.

The bets to make: Bengals -3 vs. Ravens, and Steelers +2 vs. Browns