NFL Betting: What we learned from Week 1, and how to apply it to Week 2 bets

I almost wrote this piece yesterday, but I am glad I waited for the results from last night. Week 1 in the NFL was fascinating, beginning and ending with upsets in prime time (hopefully we get even more). I don't know about you, but I definitely tore up some tickets but I hope you cashed some winners too (I told you Tyreek Hill would have a great game).

Here is a quick look at some of the stuff we saw and what it means ... for betting purposes. 

Offense in New York?

The Giants were shut out by Dallas in the opener and the Jets have already lost their starting quarterback for the season. If you are a fan of the New York teams you might have to reset your expectations. Sure we only have one data point but for the Jets, they are going to be more run-heavy, and for the Giants, they have a lot to figure out. Do either have the coaching acumen to adapt? 

Betting Takeaway ... Jets games are going to be rock fights this season. Still a lot to be determined with the Giants. 

AFC depth

Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati all top Super Bowl contenders lost last week. Does that mean that the AFC is not the better of the two conferences this season (Buffalo and Cincinnati lost to divisional opponents)? Maybe. In the case of KC, injuries might have been a factor, while the Bills and Bengals just looked "off their games," especially elite quarterbacks Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. 

Betting Takeaway ... I expect big bouncebacks from all of these teams in Week 2. It is too soon to downgrade which means short-term values. Hopefully. 

Uh oh, Dallas!

This headline is because if Dallas is really this good, we are never going to hear the end of it. They are already the most overexposed team in the NFL. Nevertheless, for at least a week, it is hard to argue with that level of interest. I do not consider them better than Philadelphia or San Francisco in the NFC but maybe the gap is not that great. 

Betting takeaway ... the most public team just got even more so. Fade to cover (but perhaps not fade to lose). 

NFC South

Carolina lost, but it was to a division opponent (Atlanta), while New Orleans and Tampa Bay both won. The NFC South is supposed to be the worst division in the NFL and while that might still prove to be true, it is off to a good start. The three teams that won did not even play that well, which might mean they are better or worse than expected, too. If the national narrative is to dump on this group and that is an opportunity in the making. 

Betting Takeaway ... Fading the public has always been a winning strategy. Late-game plays on teams the market is down on can be a winning strategy. 

QB stuff

I am not sure I know how to feel about Aaron Rodgers getting hurt. I was not sold on him being the savior for the Jets, but he was definitely better than the "next man up." None of Mahomes, Burrow, or Allen looked particularly good, and if you look at quarterback ratings after one week you will see the trio of Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder, and Brock Purdy at the top of that list. We know that ain't right. While I have confidence in those three vets already mentioned getting back to what we expect, Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson all threw for less than 200 yards (and only one of them won). That is not a lot of bang for your buck.

Betting takeaway ... Maybe this a year where backing the best QB is not a winning strategy?