NFL Week 7 'Beat the Line' moves
Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season isn't over just yet, but it's never too early to get in some early bets for the following week. In our season-long quest to create closing line value and beat the books, we've been successful at both through 18 picks. Let's keep it rolling with my three early bets for Week 7.
2023 record: 9-5-4 CLV, 11-6-1 ATS
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints
If you haven't been riding the Saints under train to start the season, you've been missing out on a ton of cash. New Orleans has played six games this season, and all six of them have gone under the total with an average of 34.2 points per game.
Derek Carr clearly isn't healthy, and he wasn't too effective even before he suffered his shoulder injury. But this handicap is mostly focused on Jacksonville's quarterback situation. Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, and he may not be able to suit up on Thursday night with limited time to recover.
We're getting this bet in before Lawrence is potentially ruled out, and if he doesn't play, this total should close in the mid-30s.
The bet to make: Under 39 (-110 DraftKings)
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
A second under in a dome with a total less than 40? Sure, why not?
The Browns defense has been exceptional all season. Cleveland ranks No. 1 in the NFL in opponent yards per play (3.8), opponent passing yards per game (121.4) and opponent third-down conversion percentage (23.08 percent). Now the best defensive unit in the league gets to feast on Gardner Minshew, who just threw three interceptions against the Jaguars in Week 6.
If Deshaun Watson gets ruled out for a third straight game, this total is going to plummet based on what we've seen from P.J. Walker. Even if Watson plays, this is an under game all the way. Four of Cleveland's first five games have gone under this total with an average of 34.4 points per game. This should play out in a similar fashion.
The bet to make: Under 39.5 (-110 DK)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams
The Rams might be the most underrated team in the NFL through six weeks. This is a team many experts predicted to finish with the worst record in the league, but Los Angeles is going to contend for a playoff spot this year.
The Rams' three losses came to the San Francisco 49ers, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Philadelphia Eagles — three Super Bowl contenders. In their other three games against the Seattle Seahawks, Colts, and Arizona Cardinals, the Rams went 3-0 and scored at least 26 points in all three.
The Steelers may have a winning record, but their 3-2 mark is a tad fluky. Pittsburgh ranks 31st in the NFL in offensive touchdowns per game, and the team is averaging -0.64 yards per play through five games. Kenny Pickett and Co. won't be able to keep up with a rejuvenated Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, so we're grabbing the -3 before it moves up.
The bet to make: Rams -3 (-106 FD)
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