The Green Bay Packers have 14 players who are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents this offseason, including reliable tight end Robert Tonyan.
Going in alphabetical order, our “Stay or Go” series will look at each of those players in advance of the official start of free agency on March 15. Why should the Packers re-sign Tonyan? Why should they let him go? Is there a replacement on the roster? Could they get a compensatory draft pick in exchange?
Packers Should Re-Sign Robert Tonyan
Coming off a torn ACL, Tonyan had a solid season. Among NFL tight ends, he ranked 13th with 53 receptions and 19th with 470 yards. He added two touchdowns.
If the NFL were to have a best-hands competition among all players, Tonyan might win. In 2022, he dropped one pass. Of the 27 tight ends who were targeted at least 50 times, his drop rate of 1.9 percent ranked second, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s after having zero drops and 52 catches in 2020. He led the way with an 84.1 percent catch rate.
With solid route-running ability, a feel for where to attack defenses and those exquisite hands, he’s a quarterback’s best friend. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers listed Tonyan among his list of "guys you can win with."
Packers Should Let Tonyan Sign Elsewhere
Including 2018 and 2019, when he was just a small part of the offense, Tonyan has averaged just 10.5 yards on his 137 career catches. In 2022, he averaged only 8.9 yards per catch with a long of 24 yards – one of only two catches of longer than 20 yards. In fact, his biggest play went for 10 yards or less in six games. The Packers went 2-8 when he had three-plus catches.
That would be fine if he blocked like Marcedes Lewis. But that’s never been Tonyan’s game.
Tonyan will turn 29 the day after the draft.
Who Would Replace Tonyan?
Certainly nobody on the roster. The Packers had high hopes for Tyler Davis, who like Tonyan started his collegiate career as a quarterback, but those fizzled once the season began.
Davis is a restricted free agent; presumably, the Packers would like to bring him back on a minimal contract. Who is under contract? Former third-round pick Josiah Deguara, who is more of a fullback than a true tight end, and late-season practice squad additions Austin Allen and Nick Guggemos.
A strong draft class awaits. It would have to be a priority position should Tonyan leave in free agency.
Could the Packers Gain a Compensatory Draft Pick for Tonyan?
Spotrac is projecting Tonyan will sign a one-year deal worth about $5.1 million. History suggests that type of contract would get the Packers a sixth-round compensatory pick. The Vikings, for reference, are projected to be getting a fifth-rounder for losing tight end Ty Conklin to the Jets on a three-year deal averaging $6.75 million.
The Verdict on Robert Tonyan
There’s one last point to add, and it’s an important one. Tonyan, as mentioned at the start, was coming off a torn ACL.
It’s almost universal that players return to the field a year after the injury but return to their vintage form in that second season. The expectation is Tonyan, who had about 10 practices in training camp to get ready for Week 1, will be a more explosive player than he was in 2022.
In 2020, when Tonyan had his breakout season, he averaged 11.3 yards per catch and scored 11 touchdowns. He had six catches of 25-plus yards in 2020 compared to zero in 2022. He had back-to-back-to-back games with a touchdown of 25-plus yards. Down the stretch, he had a touchdown in six of seven games.
Tonyan is a good player. Assuming 2022 was a stepping stone in his comeback, he could be a much more productive player in 2023.
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